Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads Polymarket pricing at 64% amid a tight first-round contest against João Campos (PSB), priced at 30.5%, with minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) at 0.8%. Recent September 2026 surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Quaest show Lyra at 43-48% and Campos at 37-45% in stimulated first-round scenarios, often within margins of error but with Lyra holding numerical edges in valid votes near or above 50% in some releases. Her state management approval ratings near 50-68% and incumbency advantages in interior regions underpin trader consensus, while the polarized matchup and potential runoff dynamics keep Campos as the clearest alternative. Scheduled voting in October focuses attention on turnout and any late shifts in undecided voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRaquel Lyra 65%
João Campos 31%
Ivan Moraes <1%
$50,481 Vol.
$50,481 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Raquel Lyra
65%
João Campos
31%
Ivan Moraes
1%
Raquel Lyra 65%
João Campos 31%
Ivan Moraes <1%
$50,481 Vol.
$50,481 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Raquel Lyra
$23,701 Vol.
65%
João Campos
$21,254 Vol.
31%
Ivan Moraes
$5,525 Vol.
1%
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads Polymarket pricing at 64% amid a tight first-round contest against João Campos (PSB), priced at 30.5%, with minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) at 0.8%. Recent September 2026 surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Quaest show Lyra at 43-48% and Campos at 37-45% in stimulated first-round scenarios, often within margins of error but with Lyra holding numerical edges in valid votes near or above 50% in some releases. Her state management approval ratings near 50-68% and incumbency advantages in interior regions underpin trader consensus, while the polarized matchup and potential runoff dynamics keep Campos as the clearest alternative. Scheduled voting in October focuses attention on turnout and any late shifts in undecided voters.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$50,481Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads Polymarket pricing at 64% amid a tight first-round contest against João Campos (PSB), priced at 30.5%, with minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) at 0.8%. Recent September 2026 surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Quaest show Lyra at 43-48% and Campos at 37-45% in stimulated first-round scenarios, often within margins of error but with Lyra holding numerical edges in valid votes near or above 50% in some releases. Her state management approval ratings near 50-68% and incumbency advantages in interior regions underpin trader consensus, while the polarized matchup and potential runoff dynamics keep Campos as the clearest alternative. Scheduled voting in October focuses attention on turnout and any late shifts in undecided voters.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$50,481Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, leads Polymarket pricing at 64% amid a tight first-round contest against João Campos (PSB), priced at 30.5%, with minor candidates such as Ivan Moraes (PSOL) at 0.8%. Recent September 2026 surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and Quaest show Lyra at 43-48% and Campos at 37-45% in stimulated first-round scenarios, often within margins of error but with Lyra holding numerical edges in valid votes near or above 50% in some releases. Her state management approval ratings near 50-68% and incumbency advantages in interior regions underpin trader consensus, while the polarized matchup and potential runoff dynamics keep Campos as the clearest alternative. Scheduled voting in October focuses attention on turnout and any late shifts in undecided voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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