**Trader consensus heavily favors 10 or more states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) for the U.S. Drought Monitor map covering the week of September 22, 2026, at 94% implied probability.** This reflects persistent, widespread exceptional drought driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026, with below-normal precipitation sustaining flash drought across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi River Basin, and parts of the Southeast. Official USDM data valid September 15 already show D4 conditions in multiple states including Colorado (expanding to 15%), Texas, New Mexico, Idaho, and others in the Southwest and Plains, with degradation noted in areas like Maine and North Carolina. High evaporative demand and soil moisture deficits support continuation into late September. A realistic challenge would require rapid, widespread precipitation sufficient to improve conditions across several states before the next map's data cutoff, though current outlooks indicate limited relief.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien d'États seront en D4 (sécheresse exceptionnelle) — semaine du 22 septembre 2026 ?
Combien d'États seront en D4 (sécheresse exceptionnelle) — semaine du 22 septembre 2026 ?
10 États ou plus 94%
7 à 9 États 5%
1-2 États 3.0%
3-4 États 3.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
24 sept. 2026
0 États
1%
1-2 États
3%
3-4 États
3%
5 à 6 États
3%
7 à 9 États
5%
10 États ou plus
94%
10 États ou plus 94%
7 à 9 États 5%
1-2 États 3.0%
3-4 États 3.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
24 sept. 2026
0 États
$25 Vol.
1%
1-2 États
$0 Vol.
3%
3-4 États
$0 Vol.
3%
5 à 6 États
$0 Vol.
3%
7 à 9 États
$0 Vol.
5%
10 États ou plus
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Trader consensus heavily favors 10 or more states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) for the U.S. Drought Monitor map covering the week of September 22, 2026, at 94% implied probability.** This reflects persistent, widespread exceptional drought driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026, with below-normal precipitation sustaining flash drought across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi River Basin, and parts of the Southeast. Official USDM data valid September 15 already show D4 conditions in multiple states including Colorado (expanding to 15%), Texas, New Mexico, Idaho, and others in the Southwest and Plains, with degradation noted in areas like Maine and North Carolina. High evaporative demand and soil moisture deficits support continuation into late September. A realistic challenge would require rapid, widespread precipitation sufficient to improve conditions across several states before the next map's data cutoff, though current outlooks indicate limited relief.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Marché ouvert : Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$25Date de fin
24 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Trader consensus heavily favors 10 or more states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) for the U.S. Drought Monitor map covering the week of September 22, 2026, at 94% implied probability.** This reflects persistent, widespread exceptional drought driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026, with below-normal precipitation sustaining flash drought across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi River Basin, and parts of the Southeast. Official USDM data valid September 15 already show D4 conditions in multiple states including Colorado (expanding to 15%), Texas, New Mexico, Idaho, and others in the Southwest and Plains, with degradation noted in areas like Maine and North Carolina. High evaporative demand and soil moisture deficits support continuation into late September. A realistic challenge would require rapid, widespread precipitation sufficient to improve conditions across several states before the next map's data cutoff, though current outlooks indicate limited relief.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$25Date de fin
24 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors 10 or more states in D4 (Exceptional Drought) for the U.S. Drought Monitor map covering the week of September 22, 2026, at 94% implied probability.** This reflects persistent, widespread exceptional drought driven by the contiguous U.S. recording its warmest June–August on record in 2026, with below-normal precipitation sustaining flash drought across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi River Basin, and parts of the Southeast. Official USDM data valid September 15 already show D4 conditions in multiple states including Colorado (expanding to 15%), Texas, New Mexico, Idaho, and others in the Southwest and Plains, with degradation noted in areas like Maine and North Carolina. High evaporative demand and soil moisture deficits support continuation into late September. A realistic challenge would require rapid, widespread precipitation sufficient to improve conditions across several states before the next map's data cutoff, though current outlooks indicate limited relief.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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