Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million (95.4% implied probability), driven by industry tracking estimates from Box Office Pro projecting a $35–$45 million range. This reflects a projected 40–50% drop from its robust $69 million second-weekend hold—a 47% decline from the $132 million opening—amid typical family animated film trajectories post-Easter, front-loaded kid audiences shifting back to school routines, and mild competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary. Strong word-of-mouth and franchise loyalty have propelled it past $308 million domestic already, making it 2026's top grosser, but an upset above $44 million would require exceptional walk-up attendance or weather boosts pulling family crowds, scenarios deemed low-likelihood by trackers as final weekend tallies lock Sunday.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3e box-office du week-end
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3e box-office du week-end
<44M 95.4%
44-48m 3.6%
48-52M$ <1%
>52 M <1%
$38,844 Vol.
$38,844 Vol.
20 avr. 2026
<44M
95%
44-48m
4%
48-52M$
1%
>52 M
1%
<44M 95.4%
44-48m 3.6%
48-52M$ <1%
>52 M <1%
$38,844 Vol.
$38,844 Vol.
20 avr. 2026
<44M
$3,397 Vol.
95%
44-48m
$5,150 Vol.
4%
48-52M$
$8,313 Vol.
1%
>52 M
$21,984 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million (95.4% implied probability), driven by industry tracking estimates from Box Office Pro projecting a $35–$45 million range. This reflects a projected 40–50% drop from its robust $69 million second-weekend hold—a 47% decline from the $132 million opening—amid typical family animated film trajectories post-Easter, front-loaded kid audiences shifting back to school routines, and mild competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary. Strong word-of-mouth and franchise loyalty have propelled it past $308 million domestic already, making it 2026's top grosser, but an upset above $44 million would require exceptional walk-up attendance or weather boosts pulling family crowds, scenarios deemed low-likelihood by trackers as final weekend tallies lock Sunday.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$38,844Date de fin
20 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million (95.4% implied probability), driven by industry tracking estimates from Box Office Pro projecting a $35–$45 million range. This reflects a projected 40–50% drop from its robust $69 million second-weekend hold—a 47% decline from the $132 million opening—amid typical family animated film trajectories post-Easter, front-loaded kid audiences shifting back to school routines, and mild competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary. Strong word-of-mouth and franchise loyalty have propelled it past $308 million domestic already, making it 2026's top grosser, but an upset above $44 million would require exceptional walk-up attendance or weather boosts pulling family crowds, scenarios deemed low-likelihood by trackers as final weekend tallies lock Sunday.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$38,844Date de fin
20 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third weekend domestic box office falling under $44 million (95.4% implied probability), driven by industry tracking estimates from Box Office Pro projecting a $35–$45 million range. This reflects a projected 40–50% drop from its robust $69 million second-weekend hold—a 47% decline from the $132 million opening—amid typical family animated film trajectories post-Easter, front-loaded kid audiences shifting back to school routines, and mild competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary. Strong word-of-mouth and franchise loyalty have propelled it past $308 million domestic already, making it 2026's top grosser, but an upset above $44 million would require exceptional walk-up attendance or weather boosts pulling family crowds, scenarios deemed low-likelihood by trackers as final weekend tallies lock Sunday.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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