President Trump announced a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, 2026, averting escalation after issuing a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid over a month of military exchanges, including US strikes that dismantled much of Iran's navy and defense infrastructure. The deal, mediated via Pakistan, includes upcoming truce talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance starting Friday, but faces immediate strain: Iran closed the Strait citing Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, with reports of fresh Gulf strikes and Pentagon readiness to resume combat. Trader consensus weighs the ceasefire's short-term hold against persistent violations and diplomatic hurdles before any potential end announcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourTrump annonce la fin du cessez-le-feu entre les États-Unis et l'Iran d'ici... ?
Trump annonce la fin du cessez-le-feu entre les États-Unis et l'Iran d'ici... ?
NOUVEAU
$93,874 Vol.
8 avr. 2026
8 avril
1%
10 avril
6%
12 avril
19%
15 avril
25%
18 avril
28%
21 avril
34%
$93,874 Vol.
8 avril
$14,882 Vol.
1%
10 avril
$15,164 Vol.
6%
12 avril
$26,448 Vol.
19%
15 avril
$8,898 Vol.
25%
18 avril
$9,050 Vol.
28%
21 avril
$20,587 Vol.
34%
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump announced a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, 2026, averting escalation after issuing a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid over a month of military exchanges, including US strikes that dismantled much of Iran's navy and defense infrastructure. The deal, mediated via Pakistan, includes upcoming truce talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance starting Friday, but faces immediate strain: Iran closed the Strait citing Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, with reports of fresh Gulf strikes and Pentagon readiness to resume combat. Trader consensus weighs the ceasefire's short-term hold against persistent violations and diplomatic hurdles before any potential end announcement.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volume
$93,874Date de fin
21 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump announced a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, 2026, averting escalation after issuing a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid over a month of military exchanges, including US strikes that dismantled much of Iran's navy and defense infrastructure. The deal, mediated via Pakistan, includes upcoming truce talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance starting Friday, but faces immediate strain: Iran closed the Strait citing Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, with reports of fresh Gulf strikes and Pentagon readiness to resume combat. Trader consensus weighs the ceasefire's short-term hold against persistent violations and diplomatic hurdles before any potential end announcement.
On April 7–8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire aimed at halting direct hostilities and de-escalating the ongoing conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended or is no longer in effect by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must explicitly indicate that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran has ended, been terminated, or is no longer in effect, or use equivalently definitive language clearly signaling the end of the ceasefire commitment.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire, without an explicit declaration that the US is no longer committed to the ceasefire, will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify; only announcements that explicitly terminate the commitment to refrain from military hostilities will qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$93,874Date de fin
21 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump announced a fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, 2026, averting escalation after issuing a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz amid over a month of military exchanges, including US strikes that dismantled much of Iran's navy and defense infrastructure. The deal, mediated via Pakistan, includes upcoming truce talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance starting Friday, but faces immediate strain: Iran closed the Strait citing Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, with reports of fresh Gulf strikes and Pentagon readiness to resume combat. Trader consensus weighs the ceasefire's short-term hold against persistent violations and diplomatic hurdles before any potential end announcement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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