A fragile two-week ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan and announced on April 8 following U.S. President Trump's deadline threats, has paused direct Israeli airstrikes, drone, or missile attacks on Iranian soil after six weeks of intense U.S.-Israel operations since late February. Israel halted strikes on Iran yesterday while escalating against Hezbollah in Lebanon, where over 250 were killed in recent barrages, amid Iran's renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz that endangers the truce. Reports indicate Israel awaits U.S. approval for potential energy infrastructure strikes if Tehran fails to reopen shipping lanes, heightening risks of resumption; traders weigh diplomatic signals, proxy escalations, and naval tensions as pivotal to near-term de-escalation or breakdown.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIsrael military action against Iran by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
NOUVEAU
$13,085 Vol.
21 avr. 2026
April 14
42%
April 21
65%
$13,085 Vol.
April 14
$5,423 Vol.
42%
April 21
$7,743 Vol.
65%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan and announced on April 8 following U.S. President Trump's deadline threats, has paused direct Israeli airstrikes, drone, or missile attacks on Iranian soil after six weeks of intense U.S.-Israel operations since late February. Israel halted strikes on Iran yesterday while escalating against Hezbollah in Lebanon, where over 250 were killed in recent barrages, amid Iran's renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz that endangers the truce. Reports indicate Israel awaits U.S. approval for potential energy infrastructure strikes if Tehran fails to reopen shipping lanes, heightening risks of resumption; traders weigh diplomatic signals, proxy escalations, and naval tensions as pivotal to near-term de-escalation or breakdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$13,085Date de fin
21 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan and announced on April 8 following U.S. President Trump's deadline threats, has paused direct Israeli airstrikes, drone, or missile attacks on Iranian soil after six weeks of intense U.S.-Israel operations since late February. Israel halted strikes on Iran yesterday while escalating against Hezbollah in Lebanon, where over 250 were killed in recent barrages, amid Iran's renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz that endangers the truce. Reports indicate Israel awaits U.S. approval for potential energy infrastructure strikes if Tehran fails to reopen shipping lanes, heightening risks of resumption; traders weigh diplomatic signals, proxy escalations, and naval tensions as pivotal to near-term de-escalation or breakdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$13,085Date de fin
21 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan and announced on April 8 following U.S. President Trump's deadline threats, has paused direct Israeli airstrikes, drone, or missile attacks on Iranian soil after six weeks of intense U.S.-Israel operations since late February. Israel halted strikes on Iran yesterday while escalating against Hezbollah in Lebanon, where over 250 were killed in recent barrages, amid Iran's renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz that endangers the truce. Reports indicate Israel awaits U.S. approval for potential energy infrastructure strikes if Tehran fails to reopen shipping lanes, heightening risks of resumption; traders weigh diplomatic signals, proxy escalations, and naval tensions as pivotal to near-term de-escalation or breakdown.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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