Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner seeks a fourth term in Virginia’s 2026 Senate race, with the Democratic primary canceled due to the absence of challengers. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Warner’s consistent polling leads of 20-plus points against limited Republican or independent opponents and Virginia’s recent Democratic performance, including Abigail Spanberger’s 2025 gubernatorial victory. Traders price the Democratic outcome at 92.5 percent because the state has not elected a Republican senator since 2002 and national GOP recruitment has remained muted. A realistic shift would require late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan realignment that alters turnout patterns in the final months before the November 3 election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate
93%
Républicain
6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate
$8,033 Vol.
93%
Républicain
$1,121 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner seeks a fourth term in Virginia’s 2026 Senate race, with the Democratic primary canceled due to the absence of challengers. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Warner’s consistent polling leads of 20-plus points against limited Republican or independent opponents and Virginia’s recent Democratic performance, including Abigail Spanberger’s 2025 gubernatorial victory. Traders price the Democratic outcome at 92.5 percent because the state has not elected a Republican senator since 2002 and national GOP recruitment has remained muted. A realistic shift would require late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan realignment that alters turnout patterns in the final months before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$9,154Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner seeks a fourth term in Virginia’s 2026 Senate race, with the Democratic primary canceled due to the absence of challengers. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Warner’s consistent polling leads of 20-plus points against limited Republican or independent opponents and Virginia’s recent Democratic performance, including Abigail Spanberger’s 2025 gubernatorial victory. Traders price the Democratic outcome at 92.5 percent because the state has not elected a Republican senator since 2002 and national GOP recruitment has remained muted. A realistic shift would require late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan realignment that alters turnout patterns in the final months before the November 3 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$9,154Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner seeks a fourth term in Virginia’s 2026 Senate race, with the Democratic primary canceled due to the absence of challengers. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Warner’s consistent polling leads of 20-plus points against limited Republican or independent opponents and Virginia’s recent Democratic performance, including Abigail Spanberger’s 2025 gubernatorial victory. Traders price the Democratic outcome at 92.5 percent because the state has not elected a Republican senator since 2002 and national GOP recruitment has remained muted. A realistic shift would require late-breaking developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national partisan realignment that alters turnout patterns in the final months before the November 3 election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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