Polymarket traders are assigning highest implied probabilities to SPY levels above $650 by April 2026, reflecting bullish sentiment fueled by the post-election rally and expectations of pro-growth fiscal policies like tax cuts and deregulation. SPY currently hovers near $596 after a 28% YTD surge to record highs, backed by 11% consensus EPS growth forecasts for 2025-26 from major banks and 100bps in Fed rate cuts since September. Elevated 22x forward P/E ratios signal stretched valuations, however, amid persistent inflation risks. Traders should monitor December FOMC for peak rate signals, January CPI data, and Q4 earnings season for catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour↑ 720 $
100%
↑ 710 $
50%
↑ 700 $
100%
↑ 690 $
50%
↑ 680 $
50%
↑ 670 $
50%
↑ 660 $
50%
↓ 650 $
50%
↓ 640 $
100%
↓ 630 $
100%
↓ 620 $
100%
↓ 610 $
50%
↓ 600 $
100%
↓ 590 $
50%
$0.00 Vol.
↑ 720 $
100%
↑ 710 $
50%
↑ 700 $
100%
↑ 690 $
50%
↑ 680 $
50%
↑ 670 $
50%
↑ 660 $
50%
↓ 650 $
50%
↓ 640 $
100%
↓ 630 $
100%
↓ 620 $
100%
↓ 610 $
50%
↓ 600 $
100%
↓ 590 $
50%
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are assigning highest implied probabilities to SPY levels above $650 by April 2026, reflecting bullish sentiment fueled by the post-election rally and expectations of pro-growth fiscal policies like tax cuts and deregulation. SPY currently hovers near $596 after a 28% YTD surge to record highs, backed by 11% consensus EPS growth forecasts for 2025-26 from major banks and 100bps in Fed rate cuts since September. Elevated 22x forward P/E ratios signal stretched valuations, however, amid persistent inflation risks. Traders should monitor December FOMC for peak rate signals, January CPI data, and Q4 earnings season for catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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