Québec Solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election with a concentrated base in several Montreal ridings, where 338Canada projections updated August 27 show multiple safe or likely seats including Gouin and Mercier, plus toss-ups such as Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques. Current seat forecasts range from two to ten, with a central estimate of five, consistent with the party's 11 seats after 2022 and ongoing local strength even as provincial support hovers near 9–10 percent. The campaign launch on August 27, focused on housing and public services under leader Ruba Ghazal, has not altered these structural advantages. Traders assign 92.5 percent probability to QS winning at least one seat because late swings or turnout shifts would need to overcome entrenched urban support to eliminate all representation.