US-Venezuela tensions center on oil access, counternarcotics, and hemispheric influence under the Trump administration. The January 2026 Operation Absolute Resolve featured targeted airstrikes and Maduro’s capture for narco-terrorism charges, installing interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez without large-scale ground occupation. An August 2026 oil agreement granted the US stakes in major reserves, alongside coordinated strikes on criminal networks and steps toward diplomatic normalization. Persistent Caribbean naval deployments and asset buildups signal leverage for compliance on sanctions relief and elections, while congressional war-powers debates and regional reactions constrain escalation. These developments frame trader assessments of full invasion risks through the resolution window, emphasizing economic extraction and regime management over sustained combat operations.