Trump's ongoing term shows no signs of the acute political, legal, or personal pressures that have historically prompted presidential resignations, producing the market's 96.3% implied probability against an exit before 2027. Incumbents in similar positions have completed their terms absent extraordinary crises, and recent months have brought no confirmed developments—such as health announcements, congressional moves toward removal, or public statements of intent—that would alter this baseline. Traders' consensus aligns with these structural patterns. Even at elevated probabilities, late developments including sudden medical issues, major court rulings, or rapid erosion of legislative support could still introduce limited uncertainty within the resolution window.