The May 17, 2026 Andalusian regional election delivered 53 seats to the People's Party in the 109-seat parliament, two short of the absolute majority threshold, based on near-final counts exceeding 99 percent of ballots. This outcome followed the PP's loss of five seats from its 2022 result amid higher turnout and shifts in voter distribution across major parties. Traders assign overwhelming probability to the "no" resolution because the seat totals are fixed by the official tally, with no credible path for the PP to reach 55 seats absent unprecedented recounts or invalidated ballots. Remaining uncertainty centers on formal certification timelines or minor procedural challenges, though historical precedent in Spanish regional contests shows such factors rarely alter final parliamentary arithmetic.