The ongoing partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, now over two months since starting February 14, 2026, amid partisan disputes over immigration enforcement funding and reforms, has entrenched trader consensus at 97% for another government shutdown occurring before the November 3, 2026, midterms, with recent House Republican rejection of Senate stopgap measures on April 2 and stalled votes despite Speaker Mike Johnson's two-track plan fueling impasse fears. Concurrently, early generic ballot polls like CNN's April 3 survey showing Democrats leading 45%-40% reflect historical midterm losses for the president's party—Republicans' narrow current House majority—positioning Democrats as 83.6% favorites to gain control, as sustained shutdown chaos risks eroding GOP support in battleground districts ahead of key primaries.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$314,791 वॉल्यूम
$314,791 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
शटडाउन और डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
84%
शटडाउन और रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
14%
$314,791 वॉल्यूम
$314,791 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
शटडाउन और डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$46,468 वॉल्यूम
84%
शटडाउन और रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$58,721 वॉल्यूम
14%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.The ongoing partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, now over two months since starting February 14, 2026, amid partisan disputes over immigration enforcement funding and reforms, has entrenched trader consensus at 97% for another government shutdown occurring before the November 3, 2026, midterms, with recent House Republican rejection of Senate stopgap measures on April 2 and stalled votes despite Speaker Mike Johnson's two-track plan fueling impasse fears. Concurrently, early generic ballot polls like CNN's April 3 survey showing Democrats leading 45%-40% reflect historical midterm losses for the president's party—Republicans' narrow current House majority—positioning Democrats as 83.6% favorites to gain control, as sustained shutdown chaos risks eroding GOP support in battleground districts ahead of key primaries.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$314,791समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.The ongoing partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, now over two months since starting February 14, 2026, amid partisan disputes over immigration enforcement funding and reforms, has entrenched trader consensus at 97% for another government shutdown occurring before the November 3, 2026, midterms, with recent House Republican rejection of Senate stopgap measures on April 2 and stalled votes despite Speaker Mike Johnson's two-track plan fueling impasse fears. Concurrently, early generic ballot polls like CNN's April 3 survey showing Democrats leading 45%-40% reflect historical midterm losses for the president's party—Republicans' narrow current House majority—positioning Democrats as 83.6% favorites to gain control, as sustained shutdown chaos risks eroding GOP support in battleground districts ahead of key primaries.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
वॉल्यूम
$314,791समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The ongoing partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, now over two months since starting February 14, 2026, amid partisan disputes over immigration enforcement funding and reforms, has entrenched trader consensus at 97% for another government shutdown occurring before the November 3, 2026, midterms, with recent House Republican rejection of Senate stopgap measures on April 2 and stalled votes despite Speaker Mike Johnson's two-track plan fueling impasse fears. Concurrently, early generic ballot polls like CNN's April 3 survey showing Democrats leading 45%-40% reflect historical midterm losses for the president's party—Republicans' narrow current House majority—positioning Democrats as 83.6% favorites to gain control, as sustained shutdown chaos risks eroding GOP support in battleground districts ahead of key primaries.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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