Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for California's 18th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position and the district's strong Democratic lean encompassing San Jose suburbs, Salinas, and Morgan Hill. Lofgren, serving since 1995, secured a decisive victory in the 2024 general election over Republican Peter Hernandez, with no significant challengers emerging for 2026 amid her fundraising dominance estimated at $1.44 million. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days to shift sentiment, underscoring stable fundamentals like incumbency advantage and historical base rates for safe seats. Potential disruptions include Lofgren's retirement at age 77, a high-profile GOP recruit, top-two primary surprises on June 2, or national midterm dynamics, though barriers remain high for Republicans.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -18 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
CA -18 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$29,278 वॉल्यूम
$29,278 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$29,278 वॉल्यूम
$29,278 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,979 वॉल्यूम
93%
Republican Party
$14,299 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for California's 18th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position and the district's strong Democratic lean encompassing San Jose suburbs, Salinas, and Morgan Hill. Lofgren, serving since 1995, secured a decisive victory in the 2024 general election over Republican Peter Hernandez, with no significant challengers emerging for 2026 amid her fundraising dominance estimated at $1.44 million. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days to shift sentiment, underscoring stable fundamentals like incumbency advantage and historical base rates for safe seats. Potential disruptions include Lofgren's retirement at age 77, a high-profile GOP recruit, top-two primary surprises on June 2, or national midterm dynamics, though barriers remain high for Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$29,278समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for California's 18th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position and the district's strong Democratic lean encompassing San Jose suburbs, Salinas, and Morgan Hill. Lofgren, serving since 1995, secured a decisive victory in the 2024 general election over Republican Peter Hernandez, with no significant challengers emerging for 2026 amid her fundraising dominance estimated at $1.44 million. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days to shift sentiment, underscoring stable fundamentals like incumbency advantage and historical base rates for safe seats. Potential disruptions include Lofgren's retirement at age 77, a high-profile GOP recruit, top-two primary surprises on June 2, or national midterm dynamics, though barriers remain high for Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$29,278समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for California's 18th Congressional District House seat, driven by incumbent Rep. Zoe Lofgren's entrenched position and the district's strong Democratic lean encompassing San Jose suburbs, Salinas, and Morgan Hill. Lofgren, serving since 1995, secured a decisive victory in the 2024 general election over Republican Peter Hernandez, with no significant challengers emerging for 2026 amid her fundraising dominance estimated at $1.44 million. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days to shift sentiment, underscoring stable fundamentals like incumbency advantage and historical base rates for safe seats. Potential disruptions include Lofgren's retirement at age 77, a high-profile GOP recruit, top-two primary surprises on June 2, or national midterm dynamics, though barriers remain high for Republicans.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न