Recent polls from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest, released April 11–15, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 4–6 points in first-round scenarios, with both around 40–45% amid fragmented fields including governors Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior polling in single digits. This razor-thin margin, narrowed dramatically since mid-March amid Lula's declining approval on inflation and Flávio's consolidation of right-wing support via his father's endorsement, drives trader consensus toward small victories: Lula <5% at 38.5% implied probability and Flávio <5% at 19.5%. A police probe into Flávio for alleged defamation against Lula adds uncertainty, while no candidate nears 50% for outright win, pointing to likely runoff on October 25.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाब्राज़ील राष्ट्रपति चुनाव का पहला दौर: जीत का अंतर
ब्राज़ील राष्ट्रपति चुनाव का पहला दौर: जीत का अंतर
लूला दा सिल्वा <5% 39%
लूला दा सिल्वा 5-10% 22%
फ़्लावियो बोल्सोनारो <5% 19%
फ्लावियो बोल्सोनारो 10%+ 8.8%
$219,671 वॉल्यूम
$219,671 वॉल्यूम
4 अक्टू, 2026
लूला दा सिल्वा 15%+
6%
लूला दा सिल्वा 10-15%
3%
लूला दा सिल्वा 5-10%
22%
लूला दा सिल्वा <5%
39%
फ्लावियो बोल्सोनारो 10%+
9%
फ्लावियो बोलसोनारो 5-10%
7%
फ़्लावियो बोल्सोनारो <5%
19%
रेनेन सैंटोस विजय
5%
तार्सीसियो डी फ्रीतास की जीत
<1%
रातिन्हो जूनियर की विजय
1%
अन्य
4%
लूला दा सिल्वा <5% 39%
लूला दा सिल्वा 5-10% 22%
फ़्लावियो बोल्सोनारो <5% 19%
फ्लावियो बोल्सोनारो 10%+ 8.8%
$219,671 वॉल्यूम
$219,671 वॉल्यूम
4 अक्टू, 2026
लूला दा सिल्वा 15%+
$3,822 वॉल्यूम
6%
लूला दा सिल्वा 10-15%
$1,621 वॉल्यूम
3%
लूला दा सिल्वा 5-10%
$6,098 वॉल्यूम
22%
लूला दा सिल्वा <5%
$1,962 वॉल्यूम
39%
फ्लावियो बोल्सोनारो 10%+
$1,126 वॉल्यूम
9%
फ्लावियो बोलसोनारो 5-10%
$1,310 वॉल्यूम
7%
फ़्लावियो बोल्सोनारो <5%
$2,760 वॉल्यूम
19%
रेनेन सैंटोस विजय
$197,660 वॉल्यूम
5%
तार्सीसियो डी फ्रीतास की जीत
$790 वॉल्यूम
<1%
रातिन्हो जूनियर की विजय
$1,024 वॉल्यूम
1%
अन्य
$1,497 वॉल्यूम
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest, released April 11–15, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 4–6 points in first-round scenarios, with both around 40–45% amid fragmented fields including governors Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior polling in single digits. This razor-thin margin, narrowed dramatically since mid-March amid Lula's declining approval on inflation and Flávio's consolidation of right-wing support via his father's endorsement, drives trader consensus toward small victories: Lula <5% at 38.5% implied probability and Flávio <5% at 19.5%. A police probe into Flávio for alleged defamation against Lula adds uncertainty, while no candidate nears 50% for outright win, pointing to likely runoff on October 25.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$219,671समाप्ति तिथि
4 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest, released April 11–15, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 4–6 points in first-round scenarios, with both around 40–45% amid fragmented fields including governors Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior polling in single digits. This razor-thin margin, narrowed dramatically since mid-March amid Lula's declining approval on inflation and Flávio's consolidation of right-wing support via his father's endorsement, drives trader consensus toward small victories: Lula <5% at 38.5% implied probability and Flávio <5% at 19.5%. A police probe into Flávio for alleged defamation against Lula adds uncertainty, while no candidate nears 50% for outright win, pointing to likely runoff on October 25.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
वॉल्यूम
$219,671समाप्ति तिथि
4 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha and Genial/Quaest, released April 11–15, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 4–6 points in first-round scenarios, with both around 40–45% amid fragmented fields including governors Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior polling in single digits. This razor-thin margin, narrowed dramatically since mid-March amid Lula's declining approval on inflation and Flávio's consolidation of right-wing support via his father's endorsement, drives trader consensus toward small victories: Lula <5% at 38.5% implied probability and Flávio <5% at 19.5%. A police probe into Flávio for alleged defamation against Lula adds uncertainty, while no candidate nears 50% for outright win, pointing to likely runoff on October 25.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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