Persistent inflation, with the May 2026 CPI rising 0.4 percentage points to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks, combined with a robust labor market and the May jobs report, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Traders view the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% as appropriate given upside risks to price stability, with the new chair’s June 16-17 meeting likely to reinforce a data-dependent stance and potentially remove easing bias. Limited probabilities for 25 basis point moves in either direction reflect the current equilibrium, though a sharp June CPI decline due mid-July or material labor market softening could shift expectations toward easing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकोई बदलाव नहीं 94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 2.9%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 2.8%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 1.6%
$10,081,981 वॉल्यूम
$10,081,981 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
2%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
3%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
3%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
<1%
कोई बदलाव नहीं 94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि 2.9%
25 बीपीएस की कमी 2.8%
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती 1.6%
$10,081,981 वॉल्यूम
$10,081,981 वॉल्यूम
29 जुल, 2026
50+ बीपीएस की कटौती
$1,505,172 वॉल्यूम
2%
25 बीपीएस की कमी
$1,129,889 वॉल्यूम
3%
कोई बदलाव नहीं
$1,699,199 वॉल्यूम
94%
25 बीपीएस वृद्धि
$4,162,239 वॉल्यूम
3%
50+ बेसिस प्वाइंट वृद्धि
$1,585,482 वॉल्यूम
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation, with the May 2026 CPI rising 0.4 percentage points to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks, combined with a robust labor market and the May jobs report, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Traders view the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% as appropriate given upside risks to price stability, with the new chair’s June 16-17 meeting likely to reinforce a data-dependent stance and potentially remove easing bias. Limited probabilities for 25 basis point moves in either direction reflect the current equilibrium, though a sharp June CPI decline due mid-July or material labor market softening could shift expectations toward easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$10,081,981समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation, with the May 2026 CPI rising 0.4 percentage points to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks, combined with a robust labor market and the May jobs report, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Traders view the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% as appropriate given upside risks to price stability, with the new chair’s June 16-17 meeting likely to reinforce a data-dependent stance and potentially remove easing bias. Limited probabilities for 25 basis point moves in either direction reflect the current equilibrium, though a sharp June CPI decline due mid-July or material labor market softening could shift expectations toward easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$10,081,981समाप्ति तिथि
29 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation, with the May 2026 CPI rising 0.4 percentage points to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks, combined with a robust labor market and the May jobs report, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Traders view the federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% as appropriate given upside risks to price stability, with the new chair’s June 16-17 meeting likely to reinforce a data-dependent stance and potentially remove easing bias. Limited probabilities for 25 basis point moves in either direction reflect the current equilibrium, though a sharp June CPI decline due mid-July or material labor market softening could shift expectations toward easing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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