The wide dispersion of low probabilities across more than a dozen candidates in the December 2026 Guinea-Bissau presidential election reflects a fragmented field shaped by the November 2025 coup, the annulment of the prior vote, and a military-led transition under General Horta Inta-A Na Man. Recent approval of a new constitution expanding presidential authority, combined with eligibility rules requiring continuous residency and restrictions on party activities near institutions, has added procedural uncertainty. Fernando Dias da Costa and Umaro Sissoco Embaló remain the highest-priced names due to their prior visibility and backing from opposition and Madem G15 networks, yet neither has consolidated broad support amid ongoing negotiations, potential disqualifications, and the junta's role in setting the electoral calendar. Scheduled legislative and presidential voting on the same date further disperses trader focus across possible alliances and turnout patterns in the final months before the poll.