Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party prevailing in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's entrenched position in this Solid Democratic district according to Cook Political Report ratings. Tokuda captured 66.5% in her 2024 reelection amid strong voter support in the reliably blue seat encompassing rural Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island, further solidified by recent endorsements from influential Hawaii unions—the Hawaii State Teachers Association in February 2026 and Hawaii Government Employees Association in March—enhancing her incumbency advantage ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primaries. State Sen. Brenton Awa stands as the sole announced Republican with limited fundraising compared to Tokuda's cash reserves. Potential shifts could arise from a late GOP heavyweight recruit, Tokuda scandal, or robust national Republican midterm momentum, though structural district leanings favor Democrats.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHI -02 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
HI -02 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$40,316 वॉल्यूम
$40,316 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
8%
$40,316 वॉल्यूम
$40,316 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$31,454 वॉल्यूम
93%
Republican Party
$8,862 वॉल्यूम
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party prevailing in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's entrenched position in this Solid Democratic district according to Cook Political Report ratings. Tokuda captured 66.5% in her 2024 reelection amid strong voter support in the reliably blue seat encompassing rural Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island, further solidified by recent endorsements from influential Hawaii unions—the Hawaii State Teachers Association in February 2026 and Hawaii Government Employees Association in March—enhancing her incumbency advantage ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primaries. State Sen. Brenton Awa stands as the sole announced Republican with limited fundraising compared to Tokuda's cash reserves. Potential shifts could arise from a late GOP heavyweight recruit, Tokuda scandal, or robust national Republican midterm momentum, though structural district leanings favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$40,316समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party prevailing in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's entrenched position in this Solid Democratic district according to Cook Political Report ratings. Tokuda captured 66.5% in her 2024 reelection amid strong voter support in the reliably blue seat encompassing rural Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island, further solidified by recent endorsements from influential Hawaii unions—the Hawaii State Teachers Association in February 2026 and Hawaii Government Employees Association in March—enhancing her incumbency advantage ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primaries. State Sen. Brenton Awa stands as the sole announced Republican with limited fundraising compared to Tokuda's cash reserves. Potential shifts could arise from a late GOP heavyweight recruit, Tokuda scandal, or robust national Republican midterm momentum, though structural district leanings favor Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$40,316समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party prevailing in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda's entrenched position in this Solid Democratic district according to Cook Political Report ratings. Tokuda captured 66.5% in her 2024 reelection amid strong voter support in the reliably blue seat encompassing rural Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island, further solidified by recent endorsements from influential Hawaii unions—the Hawaii State Teachers Association in February 2026 and Hawaii Government Employees Association in March—enhancing her incumbency advantage ahead of the June 2 filing deadline and August 8 primaries. State Sen. Brenton Awa stands as the sole announced Republican with limited fundraising compared to Tokuda's cash reserves. Potential shifts could arise from a late GOP heavyweight recruit, Tokuda scandal, or robust national Republican midterm momentum, though structural district leanings favor Democrats.
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