**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, her strong primary performance, and the structural advantages of incumbency.** Tokuda secured over 91% in the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary against minor challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. The district, encompassing parts of Oahu and the outer islands, has delivered Democratic margins of 17+ points in recent presidential voting and 66%+ for the House seat in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national GOP wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain unlikely before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHI -02 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
HI -02 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$63,531 वॉल्यूम
$63,531 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
96%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
6%
$63,531 वॉल्यूम
$63,531 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$43,095 वॉल्यूम
96%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$20,436 वॉल्यूम
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, her strong primary performance, and the structural advantages of incumbency.** Tokuda secured over 91% in the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary against minor challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. The district, encompassing parts of Oahu and the outer islands, has delivered Democratic margins of 17+ points in recent presidential voting and 66%+ for the House seat in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national GOP wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$63,531समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, her strong primary performance, and the structural advantages of incumbency.** Tokuda secured over 91% in the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary against minor challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. The district, encompassing parts of Oahu and the outer islands, has delivered Democratic margins of 17+ points in recent presidential voting and 66%+ for the House seat in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national GOP wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain unlikely before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$63,531समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, her strong primary performance, and the structural advantages of incumbency.** Tokuda secured over 91% in the August 8, 2026 Democratic primary against minor challengers, while Republican Brenton Awa advanced unopposed. The district, encompassing parts of Oahu and the outer islands, has delivered Democratic margins of 17+ points in recent presidential voting and 66%+ for the House seat in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national GOP wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain unlikely before the November 3 general election.
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