Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda (D) holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with a partisan voting index around D+16, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Tokuda's past victories—63% in 2022 and easy reelection in 2024—along with recent endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February and Hawaii Government Employees Association in early March, reinforce her frontrunner status amid minimal Republican traction. State Sen. Brenton Awa's October 2025 GOP candidacy announcement has failed to move markets in this safe district. Scenarios to upend odds include a credible Democratic primary challenger emerging by the June 2 filing deadline, Tokuda scandal or health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, with resolution tied to the certified November 3 general election winner.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाHI -02 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
HI -02 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$40,316 वॉल्यूम
$40,316 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
93%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
8%
$40,316 वॉल्यूम
$40,316 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$31,454 वॉल्यूम
93%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$8,862 वॉल्यूम
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda (D) holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with a partisan voting index around D+16, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Tokuda's past victories—63% in 2022 and easy reelection in 2024—along with recent endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February and Hawaii Government Employees Association in early March, reinforce her frontrunner status amid minimal Republican traction. State Sen. Brenton Awa's October 2025 GOP candidacy announcement has failed to move markets in this safe district. Scenarios to upend odds include a credible Democratic primary challenger emerging by the June 2 filing deadline, Tokuda scandal or health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, with resolution tied to the certified November 3 general election winner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$40,316समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda (D) holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with a partisan voting index around D+16, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Tokuda's past victories—63% in 2022 and easy reelection in 2024—along with recent endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February and Hawaii Government Employees Association in early March, reinforce her frontrunner status amid minimal Republican traction. State Sen. Brenton Awa's October 2025 GOP candidacy announcement has failed to move markets in this safe district. Scenarios to upend odds include a credible Democratic primary challenger emerging by the June 2 filing deadline, Tokuda scandal or health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, with resolution tied to the certified November 3 general election winner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$40,316समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jill Tokuda (D) holds a commanding position in Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with a partisan voting index around D+16, driving trader consensus to 92.5% for the Democratic Party. Tokuda's past victories—63% in 2022 and easy reelection in 2024—along with recent endorsements from the Hawaii State Teachers Association in early February and Hawaii Government Employees Association in early March, reinforce her frontrunner status amid minimal Republican traction. State Sen. Brenton Awa's October 2025 GOP candidacy announcement has failed to move markets in this safe district. Scenarios to upend odds include a credible Democratic primary challenger emerging by the June 2 filing deadline, Tokuda scandal or health issues, or a national Republican midterm wave, with resolution tied to the certified November 3 general election winner.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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