Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Isfahan in late 2025 and early 2026, have destroyed much of Tehran's enrichment and potential weaponization infrastructure, per IAEA reports and US intelligence assessments, significantly delaying any path to a nuclear test. The February 2026 IAEA update highlighted Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile but noted denied access to bombed sites and no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. With ceasefire talks advancing and UN nuclear chief urging inspections as part of a potential deal as of April 15, trader consensus reflects low risk of a test before 2027 absent major regime shifts or covert rebuilds, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing geopolitical constraints.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$169,503 वॉल्यूम
$169,503 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$169,503 वॉल्यूम
$169,503 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Isfahan in late 2025 and early 2026, have destroyed much of Tehran's enrichment and potential weaponization infrastructure, per IAEA reports and US intelligence assessments, significantly delaying any path to a nuclear test. The February 2026 IAEA update highlighted Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile but noted denied access to bombed sites and no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. With ceasefire talks advancing and UN nuclear chief urging inspections as part of a potential deal as of April 15, trader consensus reflects low risk of a test before 2027 absent major regime shifts or covert rebuilds, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing geopolitical constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$169,503समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Isfahan in late 2025 and early 2026, have destroyed much of Tehran's enrichment and potential weaponization infrastructure, per IAEA reports and US intelligence assessments, significantly delaying any path to a nuclear test. The February 2026 IAEA update highlighted Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile but noted denied access to bombed sites and no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. With ceasefire talks advancing and UN nuclear chief urging inspections as part of a potential deal as of April 15, trader consensus reflects low risk of a test before 2027 absent major regime shifts or covert rebuilds, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing geopolitical constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$169,503समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Isfahan in late 2025 and early 2026, have destroyed much of Tehran's enrichment and potential weaponization infrastructure, per IAEA reports and US intelligence assessments, significantly delaying any path to a nuclear test. The February 2026 IAEA update highlighted Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile but noted denied access to bombed sites and no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities. With ceasefire talks advancing and UN nuclear chief urging inspections as part of a potential deal as of April 15, trader consensus reflects low risk of a test before 2027 absent major regime shifts or covert rebuilds, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing geopolitical constraints.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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