Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado at 65% implied probability to win Kentucky's 6th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by his recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsement last week—praising his fiscal discipline and pro-growth record—as well as earlier backing from GOPAC and apparent support from outgoing Rep. Andy Barr. Alvarado's fundraising lead and prior statewide name recognition from his 2019 lieutenant governor bid further solidify his frontrunner status in this open-seat race. State Rep. Ryan Dotson lingers at 9.4% after a February debate affirming Trump alignment but trailing in institutional support, while Adam Perez Arquette (9.9%) and others fragment the field. Late polls or endorsements could alter odds ahead of the closed primary.