Recent forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate a likely minimum temperature near 21–22 °C for Milan on August 31, driven by persistent high pressure, light westerly winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit nocturnal radiative cooling in the Po Valley. Historical climatology shows typical late-August lows around 17–20 °C, but current warm advection and urban heat retention have kept overnight readings elevated, creating genuine uncertainty reflected in the closely matched market probabilities across the 16–26 °C range. Key variables differentiating outcomes include minor shifts in boundary-layer humidity and wind speed that can alter cooling rates by 1–3 °C, alongside possible local effects from the urban canopy. Updated model guidance and observational data from Milan Linate through the final 48 hours before resolution will likely narrow the distribution as the event approaches.