Following March 2026 municipal elections, where Rassemblement National made gains in smaller towns but failed to capture major cities like Paris and Marseille, recent polls show Jordan Bardella leading first-round hypotheticals while former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe—bolstered by his Le Havre mayoral reelection—tops second-round matchups against him, such as 52%-48% in some surveys. This post-Macron fragmentation, with no incumbent and ongoing hung parliament instability, keeps the trader-implied probabilities tightly matched at 24.5% for Philippe and 23.5% for Bardella, reflecting electability concerns and potential cordon sanitaire dynamics. Party nominations, economic pressures, or scandals could widen the gap ahead of the April 2027 first round.