H.R. 22, the SAVE Act requiring documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, passed the House on a 220-208 party-line vote in April 2025 but has languished in the Senate since receipt that month, with no committee referral, hearings, or floor action in the year since. Democratic opposition, including filibuster threats, has blocked progress amid concerns over voter access, while Republicans push for election integrity measures. With no scheduled votes and less than nine months remaining in 2026 for Senate passage, conference reconciliation if needed, and presidential signature, traders price an 89.5% "No" probability, reflecting the bill's procedural hurdles and narrow Senate GOP majority insufficient for cloture. Lame-duck session dynamics could shift odds, but inertia dominates consensus.