Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive March 3 primary victory with nearly 60% against nine challengers has solidified trader consensus favoring a Republican hold on Texas's 31st Congressional District, priced at 85% implied probability for the party's general election win on November 3. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Carter's 64% margin in 2024, and consistent Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections underscore structural advantages amid limited recent polling. Democratic nominee Justin Early, a cybersecurity veteran who won his primary outright, faces steep barriers in this reliably red battleground stretching from Austin suburbs to Temple, with no major post-primary shifts in the past month. A national wave or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap, but current dynamics favor the incumbent's reelection path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाTX -31 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
TX -31 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$13,946 वॉल्यूम
$13,946 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
85%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
15%
$13,946 वॉल्यूम
$13,946 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$8,720 वॉल्यूम
85%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$5,226 वॉल्यूम
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive March 3 primary victory with nearly 60% against nine challengers has solidified trader consensus favoring a Republican hold on Texas's 31st Congressional District, priced at 85% implied probability for the party's general election win on November 3. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Carter's 64% margin in 2024, and consistent Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections underscore structural advantages amid limited recent polling. Democratic nominee Justin Early, a cybersecurity veteran who won his primary outright, faces steep barriers in this reliably red battleground stretching from Austin suburbs to Temple, with no major post-primary shifts in the past month. A national wave or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap, but current dynamics favor the incumbent's reelection path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$13,946समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive March 3 primary victory with nearly 60% against nine challengers has solidified trader consensus favoring a Republican hold on Texas's 31st Congressional District, priced at 85% implied probability for the party's general election win on November 3. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Carter's 64% margin in 2024, and consistent Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections underscore structural advantages amid limited recent polling. Democratic nominee Justin Early, a cybersecurity veteran who won his primary outright, faces steep barriers in this reliably red battleground stretching from Austin suburbs to Temple, with no major post-primary shifts in the past month. A national wave or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap, but current dynamics favor the incumbent's reelection path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$13,946समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive March 3 primary victory with nearly 60% against nine challengers has solidified trader consensus favoring a Republican hold on Texas's 31st Congressional District, priced at 85% implied probability for the party's general election win on November 3. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index, Carter's 64% margin in 2024, and consistent Safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections underscore structural advantages amid limited recent polling. Democratic nominee Justin Early, a cybersecurity veteran who won his primary outright, faces steep barriers in this reliably red battleground stretching from Austin suburbs to Temple, with no major post-primary shifts in the past month. A national wave or unforeseen scandal could narrow the gap, but current dynamics favor the incumbent's reelection path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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