Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #2 large language model on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April 30, 2026, reflecting Claude Opus 4.6-thinking (1502 Elo) and base Opus 4.6 (1496 Elo) currently holding the top two spots as of April 14. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent dominance in agentic coding, web development, and design benchmarks, where Claude variants outperformed rivals in multi-turn tasks and visual-to-code generation. Meta's muse-spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, preliminary), supporting its 7.2% odds amid open-weight competitive pressure, while OpenAI (4.7%) and Google (4.0%) lag due to softer recent updates. With two weeks remaining, no confirmed rival releases loom, though surprises could shift the closely contested rankings.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाएंथ्रॉपिक 81%
मेटा 7.2%
OpenAI 4.7%
Google 4.0%
$37,456 वॉल्यूम
$37,456 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
एंथ्रॉपिक
81%
मेटा
7%
OpenAI
5%
4%
DeepSeek
1%
बाइटडांस
1%
अलीबाबा
<1%
xAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
अमेज़न
<1%
Baidu
<1%
मूनशॉट
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
<1%
एंथ्रॉपिक 81%
मेटा 7.2%
OpenAI 4.7%
Google 4.0%
$37,456 वॉल्यूम
$37,456 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
एंथ्रॉपिक
$15,282 वॉल्यूम
81%
मेटा
$856 वॉल्यूम
7%
OpenAI
$3,094 वॉल्यूम
5%
$3,221 वॉल्यूम
4%
DeepSeek
$1,496 वॉल्यूम
1%
बाइटडांस
$2,584 वॉल्यूम
1%
अलीबाबा
$1,387 वॉल्यूम
<1%
xAI
$1,331 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$1,533 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अमेज़न
$1,247 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Baidu
$1,407 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मूनशॉट
$1,250 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Z.ai
$1,455 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Mistral
$1,313 वॉल्यूम
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
$0 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #2 large language model on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April 30, 2026, reflecting Claude Opus 4.6-thinking (1502 Elo) and base Opus 4.6 (1496 Elo) currently holding the top two spots as of April 14. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent dominance in agentic coding, web development, and design benchmarks, where Claude variants outperformed rivals in multi-turn tasks and visual-to-code generation. Meta's muse-spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, preliminary), supporting its 7.2% odds amid open-weight competitive pressure, while OpenAI (4.7%) and Google (4.0%) lag due to softer recent updates. With two weeks remaining, no confirmed rival releases loom, though surprises could shift the closely contested rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$37,456समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #2 large language model on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April 30, 2026, reflecting Claude Opus 4.6-thinking (1502 Elo) and base Opus 4.6 (1496 Elo) currently holding the top two spots as of April 14. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent dominance in agentic coding, web development, and design benchmarks, where Claude variants outperformed rivals in multi-turn tasks and visual-to-code generation. Meta's muse-spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, preliminary), supporting its 7.2% odds amid open-weight competitive pressure, while OpenAI (4.7%) and Google (4.0%) lag due to softer recent updates. With two weeks remaining, no confirmed rival releases loom, though surprises could shift the closely contested rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$37,456समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the #2 large language model on the LM Arena Text Arena leaderboard with style control enabled by April 30, 2026, reflecting Claude Opus 4.6-thinking (1502 Elo) and base Opus 4.6 (1496 Elo) currently holding the top two spots as of April 14. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent dominance in agentic coding, web development, and design benchmarks, where Claude variants outperformed rivals in multi-turn tasks and visual-to-code generation. Meta's muse-spark trails closely at #3 (1495 Elo, preliminary), supporting its 7.2% odds amid open-weight competitive pressure, while OpenAI (4.7%) and Google (4.0%) lag due to softer recent updates. With two weeks remaining, no confirmed rival releases loom, though surprises could shift the closely contested rankings.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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