Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 67.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per LMSYS Chatbot Arena rankings, reflecting expectations that rivals OpenAI and Google will deploy superior large language model updates before resolution. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads overall leaderboards with an Elo around 1500+, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (second at ~1940 in some aggregates) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (third), bolstered by its April 11 dominance in human preference battles for coding and reasoning. However, credible rumors of OpenAI's GPT-5.5 preview and Google's Gemini 3.5 rollout—driven by competitive escalation and historical spring cadences—position those labs to claim top spots, relegating Claude to a strong third. Google's 19.5% trails due to potential OpenAI leapfrogging alone; Meta's Llama 4 lags in benchmarks. Watch for developer conference teases or API previews in the next two weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाएंथ्रॉपिक 68%
गूगल 20%
मेटा 4.0%
ओपनएआई 3.7%
$364,947 वॉल्यूम
$364,947 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
एंथ्रॉपिक
68%
गूगल
20%
मेटा
4%
ओपनएआई
4%
डीपसीक
<1%
xAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
बायडू
<1%
अलीबाबा
<1%
अमेज़ॅन
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
<1%
मिस्ट्रील
<1%
मूनशॉट
<1%
Meituan
<1%
एंथ्रॉपिक 68%
गूगल 20%
मेटा 4.0%
ओपनएआई 3.7%
$364,947 वॉल्यूम
$364,947 वॉल्यूम
30 अप्रैल, 2026
एंथ्रॉपिक
$55,696 वॉल्यूम
68%
गूगल
$41,688 वॉल्यूम
20%
मेटा
$8,638 वॉल्यूम
4%
ओपनएआई
$19,513 वॉल्यूम
4%
डीपसीक
$43,079 वॉल्यूम
<1%
xAI
$37,932 वॉल्यूम
<1%
ByteDance
$19,655 वॉल्यूम
<1%
बायडू
$14,408 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अलीबाबा
$27,819 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अमेज़ॅन
$26,535 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Z.ai
$28,940 वॉल्यूम
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
$5,335 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मिस्ट्रील
$11,009 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मूनशॉट
$12,137 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$12,613 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 67.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per LMSYS Chatbot Arena rankings, reflecting expectations that rivals OpenAI and Google will deploy superior large language model updates before resolution. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads overall leaderboards with an Elo around 1500+, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (second at ~1940 in some aggregates) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (third), bolstered by its April 11 dominance in human preference battles for coding and reasoning. However, credible rumors of OpenAI's GPT-5.5 preview and Google's Gemini 3.5 rollout—driven by competitive escalation and historical spring cadences—position those labs to claim top spots, relegating Claude to a strong third. Google's 19.5% trails due to potential OpenAI leapfrogging alone; Meta's Llama 4 lags in benchmarks. Watch for developer conference teases or API previews in the next two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$364,947समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 67.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per LMSYS Chatbot Arena rankings, reflecting expectations that rivals OpenAI and Google will deploy superior large language model updates before resolution. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads overall leaderboards with an Elo around 1500+, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (second at ~1940 in some aggregates) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (third), bolstered by its April 11 dominance in human preference battles for coding and reasoning. However, credible rumors of OpenAI's GPT-5.5 preview and Google's Gemini 3.5 rollout—driven by competitive escalation and historical spring cadences—position those labs to claim top spots, relegating Claude to a strong third. Google's 19.5% trails due to potential OpenAI leapfrogging alone; Meta's Llama 4 lags in benchmarks. Watch for developer conference teases or API previews in the next two weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$364,947समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 67.5% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per LMSYS Chatbot Arena rankings, reflecting expectations that rivals OpenAI and Google will deploy superior large language model updates before resolution. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 currently leads overall leaderboards with an Elo around 1500+, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (second at ~1940 in some aggregates) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (third), bolstered by its April 11 dominance in human preference battles for coding and reasoning. However, credible rumors of OpenAI's GPT-5.5 preview and Google's Gemini 3.5 rollout—driven by competitive escalation and historical spring cadences—position those labs to claim top spots, relegating Claude to a strong third. Google's 19.5% trails due to potential OpenAI leapfrogging alone; Meta's Llama 4 lags in benchmarks. Watch for developer conference teases or API previews in the next two weeks.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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