Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 58.5% implied probability for the top AI model by June 30, 2026, on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Thinking variants securing the #1 and #2 spots with Elo scores near 1500+ as of mid-April. This lead solidified after Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in crowdsourced battles emphasizing style consistency. A March data leak and early April previews of the unreleased Claude Mythos—touted for superior capabilities—further entrenched sentiment, though potential rivals like Google's upcoming Gemini updates or xAI's Grok iterations could challenge before quarter-end. Google trails at 16.5%, reflecting competitive pressure but no leaderboard overtake yet.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAnthropic 59%
गूगल 17%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 5.5%
$1,250,728 वॉल्यूम
$1,250,728 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
Anthropic
59%
गूगल
17%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
6%
अमेज़न
4%
Meituan
3%
Z.ai
3%
मेटा
2%
अलीबाबा
1%
DeepSeek
1%
मिस्टर्ल
1%
मूनशॉट
1%
बाइटडांस
1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
<1%
बाइडू
<1%
Anthropic 59%
गूगल 17%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 5.5%
$1,250,728 वॉल्यूम
$1,250,728 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
Anthropic
$19,950 वॉल्यूम
59%
गूगल
$11,256 वॉल्यूम
17%
OpenAI
$44,641 वॉल्यूम
6%
xAI
$9,432 वॉल्यूम
6%
अमेज़न
$3,749 वॉल्यूम
4%
Meituan
$224,686 वॉल्यूम
3%
Z.ai
$372,190 वॉल्यूम
3%
मेटा
$2,455 वॉल्यूम
2%
अलीबाबा
$128,707 वॉल्यूम
1%
DeepSeek
$179,384 वॉल्यूम
1%
मिस्टर्ल
$45,432 वॉल्यूम
1%
मूनशॉट
$198,451 वॉल्यूम
1%
बाइटडांस
$5,236 वॉल्यूम
1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
$2,355 वॉल्यूम
<1%
बाइडू
$2,806 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 58.5% implied probability for the top AI model by June 30, 2026, on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Thinking variants securing the #1 and #2 spots with Elo scores near 1500+ as of mid-April. This lead solidified after Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in crowdsourced battles emphasizing style consistency. A March data leak and early April previews of the unreleased Claude Mythos—touted for superior capabilities—further entrenched sentiment, though potential rivals like Google's upcoming Gemini updates or xAI's Grok iterations could challenge before quarter-end. Google trails at 16.5%, reflecting competitive pressure but no leaderboard overtake yet.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,250,728समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 58.5% implied probability for the top AI model by June 30, 2026, on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Thinking variants securing the #1 and #2 spots with Elo scores near 1500+ as of mid-April. This lead solidified after Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in crowdsourced battles emphasizing style consistency. A March data leak and early April previews of the unreleased Claude Mythos—touted for superior capabilities—further entrenched sentiment, though potential rivals like Google's upcoming Gemini updates or xAI's Grok iterations could challenge before quarter-end. Google trails at 16.5%, reflecting competitive pressure but no leaderboard overtake yet.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$1,250,728समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 58.5% implied probability for the top AI model by June 30, 2026, on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Claude Thinking variants securing the #1 and #2 spots with Elo scores near 1500+ as of mid-April. This lead solidified after Anthropic's recent Opus 4.6 release outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in crowdsourced battles emphasizing style consistency. A March data leak and early April previews of the unreleased Claude Mythos—touted for superior capabilities—further entrenched sentiment, though potential rivals like Google's upcoming Gemini updates or xAI's Grok iterations could challenge before quarter-end. Google trails at 16.5%, reflecting competitive pressure but no leaderboard overtake yet.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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