Matt Little's commanding lead in the MN-02 Democratic primary stems primarily from securing the DFL congressional district endorsement on the first ballot with 63 percent delegate support at the May 2026 convention. This organizational backing, alongside his prior service as state senator and Lakeville mayor, has consolidated support for the open seat vacated by Rep. Angie Craig, who is running for Senate. The August 11 primary remains weeks away, yet no subsequent polling or major developments have shifted the implied probabilities reflected in current trader consensus. State Sen. Matt Klein and state Rep. Kaela Berg trail with their own legislative records and endorsements such as EMILYs List for Berg, but limited name recognition and organizational momentum have kept their shares lower in this multi-candidate field.