Amid the intensifying US-Iran conflict, with recent US Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments to the Middle East in late March boosting invasion odds on related markets to 57%, traders assign just 9% implied probability to any US House member visiting Iran by June 30, leading outcomes for figures like JD Vance (8%), Marco Rubio (7%), or Benjamin Netanyahu (3%). President Trump's April 15 claim that the war is "close to over" and Pakistan's April 16 push for fresh US-Iran peace negotiations offer faint de-escalation signals, but ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon and Iranian retaliations maintain high barriers to diplomatic travel into Iranian territory. Potential US-Iran summits could pivot sentiment if breakthroughs occur before resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$321,194 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
कोई अमेरिकी हाउस सदस्य
9%
मार्को रुबियो
7%
जे.डी. वांस
7%
कोई अमेरिकी सीनेटर
7%
पीट हेगसेथ
4%
जेरेड कुश्नर
3%
बेंजामिन नेतन्याहू
2%
डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प
2%
$321,194 वॉल्यूम
कोई अमेरिकी हाउस सदस्य
$66,435 वॉल्यूम
9%
मार्को रुबियो
$16,459 वॉल्यूम
7%
जे.डी. वांस
$19,744 वॉल्यूम
7%
कोई अमेरिकी सीनेटर
$24,587 वॉल्यूम
7%
पीट हेगसेथ
$80,491 वॉल्यूम
4%
जेरेड कुश्नर
$12,299 वॉल्यूम
3%
बेंजामिन नेतन्याहू
$38,211 वॉल्यूम
2%
डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प
$62,969 वॉल्यूम
2%
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the intensifying US-Iran conflict, with recent US Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments to the Middle East in late March boosting invasion odds on related markets to 57%, traders assign just 9% implied probability to any US House member visiting Iran by June 30, leading outcomes for figures like JD Vance (8%), Marco Rubio (7%), or Benjamin Netanyahu (3%). President Trump's April 15 claim that the war is "close to over" and Pakistan's April 16 push for fresh US-Iran peace negotiations offer faint de-escalation signals, but ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon and Iranian retaliations maintain high barriers to diplomatic travel into Iranian territory. Potential US-Iran summits could pivot sentiment if breakthroughs occur before resolution.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$321,194समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the intensifying US-Iran conflict, with recent US Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments to the Middle East in late March boosting invasion odds on related markets to 57%, traders assign just 9% implied probability to any US House member visiting Iran by June 30, leading outcomes for figures like JD Vance (8%), Marco Rubio (7%), or Benjamin Netanyahu (3%). President Trump's April 15 claim that the war is "close to over" and Pakistan's April 16 push for fresh US-Iran peace negotiations offer faint de-escalation signals, but ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon and Iranian retaliations maintain high barriers to diplomatic travel into Iranian territory. Potential US-Iran summits could pivot sentiment if breakthroughs occur before resolution.
If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$321,194समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 1, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the intensifying US-Iran conflict, with recent US Marine and 82nd Airborne deployments to the Middle East in late March boosting invasion odds on related markets to 57%, traders assign just 9% implied probability to any US House member visiting Iran by June 30, leading outcomes for figures like JD Vance (8%), Marco Rubio (7%), or Benjamin Netanyahu (3%). President Trump's April 15 claim that the war is "close to over" and Pakistan's April 16 push for fresh US-Iran peace negotiations offer faint de-escalation signals, but ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon and Iranian retaliations maintain high barriers to diplomatic travel into Iranian territory. Potential US-Iran summits could pivot sentiment if breakthroughs occur before resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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