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icon for Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

icon for Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

>99% peluang
Polymarket

$6,490 Vol.

>99% peluang
Polymarket

$6,490 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that at least one EU nation's sovereign credit rating will be downgraded before 2027, driven by multiple confirmed actions already within the timeframe: Fitch downgraded France to 'A+' from 'AA-' on September 12, 2025, citing fiscal deterioration and political fragmentation; S&P followed with a cut to 'A+' on October 17, 2025; earlier in summer 2025, Fitch also lowered ratings for Finland, Austria, and Belgium due to high deficits and debt exceeding EU fiscal rules. These developments amid subdued growth, geopolitical strains, and coalition instability have solidified the Yes outcome, with traders pricing only minuscule risks like unprecedented agency reversals or narrow resolution disputes over rating definitions. Upcoming agency reviews in 2026 could prompt further shifts but are unlikely to retroactively alter the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$6,490
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 1:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hasil diajukan: Yes

Tidak ada sengketa

Hasil akhir: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that at least one EU nation's sovereign credit rating will be downgraded before 2027, driven by multiple confirmed actions already within the timeframe: Fitch downgraded France to 'A+' from 'AA-' on September 12, 2025, citing fiscal deterioration and political fragmentation; S&P followed with a cut to 'A+' on October 17, 2025; earlier in summer 2025, Fitch also lowered ratings for Finland, Austria, and Belgium due to high deficits and debt exceeding EU fiscal rules. These developments amid subdued growth, geopolitical strains, and coalition instability have solidified the Yes outcome, with traders pricing only minuscule risks like unprecedented agency reversals or narrow resolution disputes over rating definitions. Upcoming agency reviews in 2026 could prompt further shifts but are unlikely to retroactively alter the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$6,490
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 1:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the long-term sovereign credit letter rating of any European Union member country is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between the date of market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hasil diajukan: Yes

Tidak ada sengketa

Hasil akhir: Yes

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 100% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 100¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jan 6, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" adalah 100% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 100% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.