California’s 10th congressional district in the East Bay remains one of the state’s most reliably Democratic seats, anchored by strong partisan registration advantages and consistent past election margins exceeding 30 points. Incumbent Representative Mark DeSaulnier, first elected in 2022 after redistricting, secured reelection with 66.5 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces only minor Republican primary challengers ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic winner reflects this structural edge, limited opposition fundraising, and the absence of any recent polling or endorsements indicating a viable Republican path. A late-breaking scandal involving the incumbent, a surprise national Republican surge, or significant boundary changes could theoretically narrow the margin, though both historical voting patterns and current candidate filings suggest such shifts remain improbable before the November general election.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-10 House Election Winner
CA-10 House Election Winner
$15,171 Vol.
$15,171 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$15,171 Vol.
$15,171 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,547 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$5,624 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 10th congressional district in the East Bay remains one of the state’s most reliably Democratic seats, anchored by strong partisan registration advantages and consistent past election margins exceeding 30 points. Incumbent Representative Mark DeSaulnier, first elected in 2022 after redistricting, secured reelection with 66.5 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces only minor Republican primary challengers ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic winner reflects this structural edge, limited opposition fundraising, and the absence of any recent polling or endorsements indicating a viable Republican path. A late-breaking scandal involving the incumbent, a surprise national Republican surge, or significant boundary changes could theoretically narrow the margin, though both historical voting patterns and current candidate filings suggest such shifts remain improbable before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$15,171Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 10th congressional district in the East Bay remains one of the state’s most reliably Democratic seats, anchored by strong partisan registration advantages and consistent past election margins exceeding 30 points. Incumbent Representative Mark DeSaulnier, first elected in 2022 after redistricting, secured reelection with 66.5 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces only minor Republican primary challengers ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic winner reflects this structural edge, limited opposition fundraising, and the absence of any recent polling or endorsements indicating a viable Republican path. A late-breaking scandal involving the incumbent, a surprise national Republican surge, or significant boundary changes could theoretically narrow the margin, though both historical voting patterns and current candidate filings suggest such shifts remain improbable before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,171Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 10th congressional district in the East Bay remains one of the state’s most reliably Democratic seats, anchored by strong partisan registration advantages and consistent past election margins exceeding 30 points. Incumbent Representative Mark DeSaulnier, first elected in 2022 after redistricting, secured reelection with 66.5 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces only minor Republican primary challengers ahead of the June 2, 2026, top-two primary. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for a Democratic winner reflects this structural edge, limited opposition fundraising, and the absence of any recent polling or endorsements indicating a viable Republican path. A late-breaking scandal involving the incumbent, a surprise national Republican surge, or significant boundary changes could theoretically narrow the margin, though both historical voting patterns and current candidate filings suggest such shifts remain improbable before the November general election.
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