Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman faces Republican Scott Meyers in California's 30th district, a seat with a D+21 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles. Friedman's primary performance exceeding 52% and Meyers's 16.6% share reinforced the district's structural lean, aligning with unanimous "solid" or "safe" Democratic ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others. Trader pricing shows near-even odds across margin brackets because the exact victory spread depends on turnout patterns, local economic sentiment, and national midterm dynamics rather than competitive candidate strength. No major campaign developments have emerged since the June primary to shift expectations, leaving implied probabilities dispersed while confirming the low likelihood of a Republican victory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-30 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-30 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 35-40% 41%
Republican Wins 41%
Democrat 60%+ 41%
Democrat 55-60% 41%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 60%+
41%
Democrat 55-60%
41%
Democrat 50-55%
41%
Democrat 45-50%
41%
Democrat 40-45%
41%
Democrat 35-40%
41%
Democrat 30-35%
41%
Democrat 20-30%
41%
Democrat 0-20%
41%
Republican Wins
41%
Democrat 35-40% 41%
Republican Wins 41%
Democrat 60%+ 41%
Democrat 55-60% 41%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 60%+
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 20-30%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democrat 0-20%
$0 Vol.
41%
Republican Wins
$0 Vol.
41%
The 2026 CA-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman faces Republican Scott Meyers in California's 30th district, a seat with a D+21 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles. Friedman's primary performance exceeding 52% and Meyers's 16.6% share reinforced the district's structural lean, aligning with unanimous "solid" or "safe" Democratic ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others. Trader pricing shows near-even odds across margin brackets because the exact victory spread depends on turnout patterns, local economic sentiment, and national midterm dynamics rather than competitive candidate strength. No major campaign developments have emerged since the June primary to shift expectations, leaving implied probabilities dispersed while confirming the low likelihood of a Republican victory.
The 2026 CA-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman faces Republican Scott Meyers in California's 30th district, a seat with a D+21 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles. Friedman's primary performance exceeding 52% and Meyers's 16.6% share reinforced the district's structural lean, aligning with unanimous "solid" or "safe" Democratic ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others. Trader pricing shows near-even odds across margin brackets because the exact victory spread depends on turnout patterns, local economic sentiment, and national midterm dynamics rather than competitive candidate strength. No major campaign developments have emerged since the June primary to shift expectations, leaving implied probabilities dispersed while confirming the low likelihood of a Republican victory.
The 2026 CA-30 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-30 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman faces Republican Scott Meyers in California's 30th district, a seat with a D+21 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles. Friedman's primary performance exceeding 52% and Meyers's 16.6% share reinforced the district's structural lean, aligning with unanimous "solid" or "safe" Democratic ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others. Trader pricing shows near-even odds across margin brackets because the exact victory spread depends on turnout patterns, local economic sentiment, and national midterm dynamics rather than competitive candidate strength. No major campaign developments have emerged since the June primary to shift expectations, leaving implied probabilities dispersed while confirming the low likelihood of a Republican victory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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