Mike Derry holds a clear lead in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market at 72.5% implied probability, driven by the United Conservative Party's longstanding strength in the southeast Calgary riding and his June 2026 nomination victory over a sitting city councillor. The September 14, 2026, contest follows the resignation of former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, with nominations closing August 27. Kyle Campbell, the NDP candidate, sits at 23.5% amid the opposition's efforts to challenge in suburban seats. Lower-priced contenders including Kyle Joseph of the Progressive Tory Party at 5.0% and Liberal leader John Roggeveen at 3.5% reflect limited support in a riding where UCP candidates have historically prevailed. Trader consensus reflects the party's provincial incumbency and recent nomination dynamics ahead of election day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMike Derry 77%
John Roggeveen 42.5%
Kyle Joseph 41.9%
Kyle Campbell 0
Mike Derry
77%
John Roggeveen
43%
Kyle Joseph
42%
Kyle Campbell
42%
Mike Derry 77%
John Roggeveen 42.5%
Kyle Joseph 41.9%
Kyle Campbell 0
Mike Derry
77%
John Roggeveen
43%
Kyle Joseph
42%
Kyle Campbell
42%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry holds a clear lead in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market at 72.5% implied probability, driven by the United Conservative Party's longstanding strength in the southeast Calgary riding and his June 2026 nomination victory over a sitting city councillor. The September 14, 2026, contest follows the resignation of former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, with nominations closing August 27. Kyle Campbell, the NDP candidate, sits at 23.5% amid the opposition's efforts to challenge in suburban seats. Lower-priced contenders including Kyle Joseph of the Progressive Tory Party at 5.0% and Liberal leader John Roggeveen at 3.5% reflect limited support in a riding where UCP candidates have historically prevailed. Trader consensus reflects the party's provincial incumbency and recent nomination dynamics ahead of election day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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