California voters face competing tax measures on the November 2026 ballot, with this constitutional amendment directly countering a proposed wealth tax on billionaires that includes retroactive elements based on residency and net worth. The proposition would bar new state taxes after January 1, 2026, on retirement accounts, personal assets, and similar holdings while limiting retroactive liability tied to prior conduct or status, subject to narrow emergency exceptions. Trader consensus at roughly even odds reflects uncertainty over voter priorities between shielding savings from future levies and enabling targeted revenue measures. Key variables that could shift probabilities include campaign spending by business and labor groups, polling on wealth taxation, and any late developments clarifying interactions among the ballot initiatives.