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icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Teknologi·AI Benchmarks

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Teknologi·AI Benchmarks

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

Oct 1

Jan 1, 2027

$185,880 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$185,880 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 1520

$32,961 Vol.

96%

↑ 1530

$14,012 Vol.

32%

↑ 1540

$5,453 Vol.

23%

↑ 1550

$53,195 Vol.

18%

↑ 1600

$25,370 Vol.

5%

↑ 1650

$9,196 Vol.

5%

↑ 1700

$9,036 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Frontier labs continue pushing large language model (LLM) capabilities on LMArena-style Overall Arena leaderboards, where top Elo ratings currently cluster around 1500–1510 as of mid-September 2026.** Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants lead multiple text, coding, and vision arenas, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates demonstrate gains in agentic workflows, reasoning benchmarks, and multi-step tasks. Chinese providers including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 series add competitive pressure with strong coding and efficiency results at lower cost. Ongoing rapid iteration—new releases, thinking-mode variants, and agent arena evaluations—drives incremental Elo gains, though exact thresholds depend on sustained human preference votes and model scaling. Key catalysts through year-end include further flagship drops, developer conferences, and potential regulatory or compute constraints that could slow progress. Trader consensus reflects these competitive dynamics and historical release cadence rather than any single breakthrough.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$185,880
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Frontier labs continue pushing large language model (LLM) capabilities on LMArena-style Overall Arena leaderboards, where top Elo ratings currently cluster around 1500–1510 as of mid-September 2026.** Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants lead multiple text, coding, and vision arenas, while OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates demonstrate gains in agentic workflows, reasoning benchmarks, and multi-step tasks. Chinese providers including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 series add competitive pressure with strong coding and efficiency results at lower cost. Ongoing rapid iteration—new releases, thinking-mode variants, and agent arena evaluations—drives incremental Elo gains, though exact thresholds depend on sustained human preference votes and model scaling. Key catalysts through year-end include further flagship drops, developer conferences, and potential regulatory or compute constraints that could slow progress. Trader consensus reflects these competitive dynamics and historical release cadence rather than any single breakthrough.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$185,880
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Terkait

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36%
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "↑ 1500" di 100%, diikuti oleh "↑ 1510" di 100%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 100¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?" telah menghasilkan $185.9K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 2, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?" adalah "↑ 1500" di 100%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 100% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "↑ 1510" di 100%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.