Frontier labs continue pushing math reasoning capabilities, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s recently released GPT-6 Astra posting the highest expected performance on MathArena benchmarks and leading LMArena Math Elo ratings near or above 1550 as of mid-September 2026. These gains stem from scaled reasoning models, improved training on proof-style and research-level problems, and iterative post-training that lifts scores on uncontaminated olympiad and arXiv-derived tasks. Competitive pressure between OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, plus frequent model updates, keeps the leaderboard volatile. Key upcoming catalysts through year-end include additional frontier releases, new MathArena competitions, and any public benchmark jumps that could shift trader-implied odds on whether any model clears the next Elo threshold by December 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$130,358 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1575
51%
1600
8%
$130,358 Vol.
1575
$46,985 Vol.
51%
1600
$14,767 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Frontier labs continue pushing math reasoning capabilities, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s recently released GPT-6 Astra posting the highest expected performance on MathArena benchmarks and leading LMArena Math Elo ratings near or above 1550 as of mid-September 2026. These gains stem from scaled reasoning models, improved training on proof-style and research-level problems, and iterative post-training that lifts scores on uncontaminated olympiad and arXiv-derived tasks. Competitive pressure between OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, plus frequent model updates, keeps the leaderboard volatile. Key upcoming catalysts through year-end include additional frontier releases, new MathArena competitions, and any public benchmark jumps that could shift trader-implied odds on whether any model clears the next Elo threshold by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$130,358Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Frontier labs continue pushing math reasoning capabilities, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s recently released GPT-6 Astra posting the highest expected performance on MathArena benchmarks and leading LMArena Math Elo ratings near or above 1550 as of mid-September 2026. These gains stem from scaled reasoning models, improved training on proof-style and research-level problems, and iterative post-training that lifts scores on uncontaminated olympiad and arXiv-derived tasks. Competitive pressure between OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, plus frequent model updates, keeps the leaderboard volatile. Key upcoming catalysts through year-end include additional frontier releases, new MathArena competitions, and any public benchmark jumps that could shift trader-implied odds on whether any model clears the next Elo threshold by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$130,358Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Apr 2, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Frontier labs continue pushing math reasoning capabilities, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s recently released GPT-6 Astra posting the highest expected performance on MathArena benchmarks and leading LMArena Math Elo ratings near or above 1550 as of mid-September 2026. These gains stem from scaled reasoning models, improved training on proof-style and research-level problems, and iterative post-training that lifts scores on uncontaminated olympiad and arXiv-derived tasks. Competitive pressure between OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, plus frequent model updates, keeps the leaderboard volatile. Key upcoming catalysts through year-end include additional frontier releases, new MathArena competitions, and any public benchmark jumps that could shift trader-implied odds on whether any model clears the next Elo threshold by December 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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