Recent August incidents, including multi-hour elevated error rates on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and other models across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Cowork, along with similar disruptions on August 18–20, have highlighted Anthropic’s infrastructure strain under surging demand for its large language models. These events, part of a pattern of partial outages this summer, drive trader expectations toward 8–13 downtime days in September as capacity expansions lag behind usage growth. The closely matched 38.5% and 32.5% odds on the 8–10 and 11–13 bins reflect uncertainty over whether ongoing scaling efforts or new model releases will stabilize service or exacerbate load issues before month-end.