Erdoğan’s second presidential term, secured in the 2023 election, extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with no scheduled vote or vacancy trigger before then. Recent developments reinforce continuity: as of September 2026, he continues active governance through cabinet meetings, economic announcements, and regional policy statements, while his AKP-MHP alliance explores parliamentary mechanisms for a possible third candidacy in 2028 without advancing early elections. Opposition fragmentation, including court actions against CHP leadership and the imprisonment of figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu, has limited immediate challenges. Trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects the absence of credible near-term pathways for removal amid institutional control and lack of health or political crises forcing an exit by December 31, 2026.