Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with the next scheduled election set for May of that year and no snap vote or removal mechanism active in the interim. Traders assign a 92.5% probability to the “No” outcome on removal by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of credible health, legal, or parliamentary developments that would force an earlier exit. Erdoğan has repeatedly stated he has no intention of seeking another term, while allies explore constitutional amendments or early elections that could instead extend his eligibility. Recent consolidation measures, including opposition detentions and protests, have reinforced rather than eroded his control, leaving no verified catalyst for departure before the market resolves.