Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent runs from GFS and European guidance, indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 32–34 °C on 31 August under clear anticyclonic conditions, light southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover. This setup favors strong daytime insolation with limited boundary-layer mixing, typical for late-summer subsidence over the central Iberian Plateau. No heat-wave amplification or model divergence appears in the current guidance, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C low-probability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 52.5 % implied probability on 34 °C, aligns with these stable observational trends and the narrow uncertainty range in short-range predictions. Updated model outputs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
34°C 53%
35°C 24%
33°C 19%
36°C 8%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
6%
33°C
19%
34°C
53%
35°C
24%
36°C
8%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 53%
35°C 24%
33°C 19%
36°C 8%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
29°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$0 Vol.
2%
32°C
$5 Vol.
6%
33°C
$22 Vol.
19%
34°C
$75 Vol.
53%
35°C
$270 Vol.
24%
36°C
$0 Vol.
8%
37°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent runs from GFS and European guidance, indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 32–34 °C on 31 August under clear anticyclonic conditions, light southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover. This setup favors strong daytime insolation with limited boundary-layer mixing, typical for late-summer subsidence over the central Iberian Plateau. No heat-wave amplification or model divergence appears in the current guidance, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C low-probability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 52.5 % implied probability on 34 °C, aligns with these stable observational trends and the narrow uncertainty range in short-range predictions. Updated model outputs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$417Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent runs from GFS and European guidance, indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 32–34 °C on 31 August under clear anticyclonic conditions, light southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover. This setup favors strong daytime insolation with limited boundary-layer mixing, typical for late-summer subsidence over the central Iberian Plateau. No heat-wave amplification or model divergence appears in the current guidance, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C low-probability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 52.5 % implied probability on 34 °C, aligns with these stable observational trends and the narrow uncertainty range in short-range predictions. Updated model outputs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$417Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from global and regional models, including consistent runs from GFS and European guidance, indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum of 32–34 °C on 31 August under clear anticyclonic conditions, light southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover. This setup favors strong daytime insolation with limited boundary-layer mixing, typical for late-summer subsidence over the central Iberian Plateau. No heat-wave amplification or model divergence appears in the current guidance, keeping extremes above 36 °C or below 32 °C low-probability. Trader consensus, reflected in the 52.5 % implied probability on 34 °C, aligns with these stable observational trends and the narrow uncertainty range in short-range predictions. Updated model outputs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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