**Forecast models and current conditions point to a highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 30, 2026, most likely in the 31–32°C range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes.** Shenzhen sits under typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions, with southwesterly flow advecting moist air, high humidity (often 80–95%), and frequent convective activity. Multiple forecasts from sources including the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau, Yr.no, and WeatherBug show daytime highs of 31–33°C (roughly 88–91°F) amid moderate rain or thunderstorms, which limit peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Recent heavy rainfall on August 28 has increased soil moisture, further moderating surface temperatures via enhanced latent heat flux. The narrow spread between the top outcomes (31°C at 27.5%, 32°C at 30.0%, 33°C at 17.0%) reflects uncertainty in the timing and intensity of convection versus periods of partial clearing. Stronger or more persistent showers would cap the daily maximum nearer 31°C by reducing insolation; brief breaks in cloud cover or lighter rainfall could allow additional surface heating toward 33°C. Historical August climatology for the region shows typical highs near 32°C, providing context for why traders cluster tightly around these values rather than extremes. New model runs and official updates over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 30?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 30?
32°C 30%
31°C 28%
33°C 17%
30°C 17%
BARU
BARU
Aug 30, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
5%
30°C
17%
31°C
28%
32°C
30%
33°C
17%
34°C
7%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 30%
31°C 28%
33°C 17%
30°C 17%
BARU
BARU
Aug 30, 2026
25°C or below
$46 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$56 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$75 Vol.
1%
28°C
$126 Vol.
3%
29°C
$0 Vol.
5%
30°C
$11 Vol.
17%
31°C
$0 Vol.
28%
32°C
$30 Vol.
30%
33°C
$2 Vol.
17%
34°C
$140 Vol.
7%
35°C or higher
$22 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and current conditions point to a highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 30, 2026, most likely in the 31–32°C range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes.**
Shenzhen sits under typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions, with southwesterly flow advecting moist air, high humidity (often 80–95%), and frequent convective activity. Multiple forecasts from sources including the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau, Yr.no, and WeatherBug show daytime highs of 31–33°C (roughly 88–91°F) amid moderate rain or thunderstorms, which limit peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Recent heavy rainfall on August 28 has increased soil moisture, further moderating surface temperatures via enhanced latent heat flux.
The narrow spread between the top outcomes (31°C at 27.5%, 32°C at 30.0%, 33°C at 17.0%) reflects uncertainty in the timing and intensity of convection versus periods of partial clearing. Stronger or more persistent showers would cap the daily maximum nearer 31°C by reducing insolation; brief breaks in cloud cover or lighter rainfall could allow additional surface heating toward 33°C. Historical August climatology for the region shows typical highs near 32°C, providing context for why traders cluster tightly around these values rather than extremes. New model runs and official updates over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$507Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and current conditions point to a highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 30, 2026, most likely in the 31–32°C range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes.**
Shenzhen sits under typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions, with southwesterly flow advecting moist air, high humidity (often 80–95%), and frequent convective activity. Multiple forecasts from sources including the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau, Yr.no, and WeatherBug show daytime highs of 31–33°C (roughly 88–91°F) amid moderate rain or thunderstorms, which limit peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Recent heavy rainfall on August 28 has increased soil moisture, further moderating surface temperatures via enhanced latent heat flux.
The narrow spread between the top outcomes (31°C at 27.5%, 32°C at 30.0%, 33°C at 17.0%) reflects uncertainty in the timing and intensity of convection versus periods of partial clearing. Stronger or more persistent showers would cap the daily maximum nearer 31°C by reducing insolation; brief breaks in cloud cover or lighter rainfall could allow additional surface heating toward 33°C. Historical August climatology for the region shows typical highs near 32°C, providing context for why traders cluster tightly around these values rather than extremes. New model runs and official updates over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$507Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and current conditions point to a highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 30, 2026, most likely in the 31–32°C range, consistent with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes.** Shenzhen sits under typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions, with southwesterly flow advecting moist air, high humidity (often 80–95%), and frequent convective activity. Multiple forecasts from sources including the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau, Yr.no, and WeatherBug show daytime highs of 31–33°C (roughly 88–91°F) amid moderate rain or thunderstorms, which limit peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Recent heavy rainfall on August 28 has increased soil moisture, further moderating surface temperatures via enhanced latent heat flux. The narrow spread between the top outcomes (31°C at 27.5%, 32°C at 30.0%, 33°C at 17.0%) reflects uncertainty in the timing and intensity of convection versus periods of partial clearing. Stronger or more persistent showers would cap the daily maximum nearer 31°C by reducing insolation; brief breaks in cloud cover or lighter rainfall could allow additional surface heating toward 33°C. Historical August climatology for the region shows typical highs near 32°C, providing context for why traders cluster tightly around these values rather than extremes. New model runs and official updates over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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