Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models converge on a Warsaw maximum near 16°C for September 23, driven by northwest flow, scattered light rain or showers, and limited daytime heating under variable cloud cover. These conditions align with late-September climatology, where average highs hover around 15–17°C, and support the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 16°C and 17°C. Residual spread in model solutions—particularly regarding exact timing of any frontal passage or brief clearing—underpins the notable 23% probability assigned to 20°C or higher, while lower outcomes capture downside risks from persistent cloud or stronger winds. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 23?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 23?
16°C 40%
15°C 31%
17°C 27%
18°C 22%
BARU
BARU
Sep 23, 2026
10°C or below
4%
11°C
4%
12°C
4%
13°C
6%
14°C
16%
15°C
31%
16°C
23%
17°C
27%
18°C
22%
19°C
17%
20°C or higher
20%
16°C 40%
15°C 31%
17°C 27%
18°C 22%
BARU
BARU
Sep 23, 2026
10°C or below
$5 Vol.
4%
11°C
$5 Vol.
4%
12°C
$5 Vol.
4%
13°C
$5 Vol.
6%
14°C
$5 Vol.
16%
15°C
$5 Vol.
31%
16°C
$8 Vol.
23%
17°C
$10 Vol.
27%
18°C
$5 Vol.
22%
19°C
$0 Vol.
17%
20°C or higher
$5 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models converge on a Warsaw maximum near 16°C for September 23, driven by northwest flow, scattered light rain or showers, and limited daytime heating under variable cloud cover. These conditions align with late-September climatology, where average highs hover around 15–17°C, and support the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 16°C and 17°C. Residual spread in model solutions—particularly regarding exact timing of any frontal passage or brief clearing—underpins the notable 23% probability assigned to 20°C or higher, while lower outcomes capture downside risks from persistent cloud or stronger winds. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$58Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models converge on a Warsaw maximum near 16°C for September 23, driven by northwest flow, scattered light rain or showers, and limited daytime heating under variable cloud cover. These conditions align with late-September climatology, where average highs hover around 15–17°C, and support the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 16°C and 17°C. Residual spread in model solutions—particularly regarding exact timing of any frontal passage or brief clearing—underpins the notable 23% probability assigned to 20°C or higher, while lower outcomes capture downside risks from persistent cloud or stronger winds. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models converge on a Warsaw maximum near 16°C for September 23, driven by northwest flow, scattered light rain or showers, and limited daytime heating under variable cloud cover. These conditions align with late-September climatology, where average highs hover around 15–17°C, and support the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 16°C and 17°C. Residual spread in model solutions—particularly regarding exact timing of any frontal passage or brief clearing—underpins the notable 23% probability assigned to 20°C or higher, while lower outcomes capture downside risks from persistent cloud or stronger winds. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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