**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting confirmed primary defeats for Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, plus one additional upset amid intra-party challenges.** These outcomes stem from successful efforts by Trump-aligned or more conservative contenders capitalizing on base dissatisfaction in those states, consistent with patterns where targeted opposition overcomes incumbency advantages. Most other Republican incumbents seeking renomination, such as those in Alaska, Kansas, and Tennessee, have encountered minimal or no serious primary opposition, aligning with historical Senate primary dynamics where broad upsets remain uncommon without major scandals or coordinated national efforts. With the bulk of the primary calendar concluded, few remaining races offer realistic paths for further defeats. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unanticipated loss in one of the final contests or adjustments in how special-election replacements are tallied, though such shifts appear limited given current filing and results status.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3 95.6%
2 4.6%
4 <1%
>4 <1%
$75,434 Vol.
$75,434 Vol.
2
5%
3
96%
4
<1%
>4
<1%
3 95.6%
2 4.6%
4 <1%
>4 <1%
$75,434 Vol.
$75,434 Vol.
2
$39,226 Vol.
5%
3
$16,999 Vol.
96%
4
$6,571 Vol.
<1%
>4
$4,094 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting confirmed primary defeats for Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, plus one additional upset amid intra-party challenges.** These outcomes stem from successful efforts by Trump-aligned or more conservative contenders capitalizing on base dissatisfaction in those states, consistent with patterns where targeted opposition overcomes incumbency advantages. Most other Republican incumbents seeking renomination, such as those in Alaska, Kansas, and Tennessee, have encountered minimal or no serious primary opposition, aligning with historical Senate primary dynamics where broad upsets remain uncommon without major scandals or coordinated national efforts. With the bulk of the primary calendar concluded, few remaining races offer realistic paths for further defeats. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unanticipated loss in one of the final contests or adjustments in how special-election replacements are tallied, though such shifts appear limited given current filing and results status.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$75,434Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting confirmed primary defeats for Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, plus one additional upset amid intra-party challenges.** These outcomes stem from successful efforts by Trump-aligned or more conservative contenders capitalizing on base dissatisfaction in those states, consistent with patterns where targeted opposition overcomes incumbency advantages. Most other Republican incumbents seeking renomination, such as those in Alaska, Kansas, and Tennessee, have encountered minimal or no serious primary opposition, aligning with historical Senate primary dynamics where broad upsets remain uncommon without major scandals or coordinated national efforts. With the bulk of the primary calendar concluded, few remaining races offer realistic paths for further defeats. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unanticipated loss in one of the final contests or adjustments in how special-election replacements are tallied, though such shifts appear limited given current filing and results status.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$75,434Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors exactly three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting confirmed primary defeats for Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas, plus one additional upset amid intra-party challenges.** These outcomes stem from successful efforts by Trump-aligned or more conservative contenders capitalizing on base dissatisfaction in those states, consistent with patterns where targeted opposition overcomes incumbency advantages. Most other Republican incumbents seeking renomination, such as those in Alaska, Kansas, and Tennessee, have encountered minimal or no serious primary opposition, aligning with historical Senate primary dynamics where broad upsets remain uncommon without major scandals or coordinated national efforts. With the bulk of the primary calendar concluded, few remaining races offer realistic paths for further defeats. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include an unanticipated loss in one of the final contests or adjustments in how special-election replacements are tallied, though such shifts appear limited given current filing and results status.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
97%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
95%
Apakah Partai Republik akan memegang tepat 22 atau 23 jabatan gubernur setelah pemilihan paruh waktu 2026?
28%
Ya
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