**Traders assign an 81.5% probability to fewer than five posts by the official Khamenei accounts during August 18–25, 2026, reflecting the low baseline activity of accounts that primarily share archival statements or institutional updates since the Supreme Leader’s death earlier in the year.** The @khamenei_ir feed continues to repost historical quotes on an irregular cadence of several days apart, while the related @Khamenei_m media account issued a cluster of commemorative items around the fortieth-day observances in mid-to-late August. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic political catalysts have emerged in the current window that would prompt additional official messaging. The market’s pricing therefore embeds the established pattern of infrequent output from successor-managed channels rather than the higher volume once associated with an active leader issuing new guidance.