Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and regional models project Ankara’s overnight minimum on September 20 near 14–15 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, limiting radiative cooling compared with clearer conditions. This consensus, consistent with recent above-normal warmth and absent strong cold advection, underpins the balanced 50 % market-implied odds on extremes below 10 °C or at/above 20 °C. Key differentiating factors include variable low-level moisture and cloud timing that can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C, plus typical model spread in autumn transition patterns. Updated runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance ahead of the 20th will likely narrow the distribution around the 11–19 °C band.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Ankara on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 20?
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
11°C 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
9%
11°C
19%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
40%
15°C
14%
16°C
11%
17°C
7%
18°C
5%
19°C
4%
20°C or higher
4%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
11°C 19%
BARU
BARU
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
$0 Vol.
9%
11°C
$0 Vol.
19%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$22 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
14%
16°C
$0 Vol.
11%
17°C
$0 Vol.
7%
18°C
$0 Vol.
5%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and regional models project Ankara’s overnight minimum on September 20 near 14–15 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, limiting radiative cooling compared with clearer conditions. This consensus, consistent with recent above-normal warmth and absent strong cold advection, underpins the balanced 50 % market-implied odds on extremes below 10 °C or at/above 20 °C. Key differentiating factors include variable low-level moisture and cloud timing that can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C, plus typical model spread in autumn transition patterns. Updated runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance ahead of the 20th will likely narrow the distribution around the 11–19 °C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$22Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and regional models project Ankara’s overnight minimum on September 20 near 14–15 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, limiting radiative cooling compared with clearer conditions. This consensus, consistent with recent above-normal warmth and absent strong cold advection, underpins the balanced 50 % market-implied odds on extremes below 10 °C or at/above 20 °C. Key differentiating factors include variable low-level moisture and cloud timing that can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C, plus typical model spread in autumn transition patterns. Updated runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance ahead of the 20th will likely narrow the distribution around the 11–19 °C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and regional models project Ankara’s overnight minimum on September 20 near 14–15 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, limiting radiative cooling compared with clearer conditions. This consensus, consistent with recent above-normal warmth and absent strong cold advection, underpins the balanced 50 % market-implied odds on extremes below 10 °C or at/above 20 °C. Key differentiating factors include variable low-level moisture and cloud timing that can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C, plus typical model spread in autumn transition patterns. Updated runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance ahead of the 20th will likely narrow the distribution around the 11–19 °C band.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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