Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate Dallas will remain under a hot, humid southerly flow with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight into August 22, supporting minimum temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. High pressure and weak steering winds limit mixing and radiational cooling, keeping the overnight low close to the recent multi-day average near 83 °F. Ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover or a brief shower, which could nudge readings a degree or two lower or hold them near 85 °F. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 82–87 °F bins, with traders weighting the latest short-range guidance most heavily ahead of tonight’s observations.