Tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–16°C for Toronto’s August 21 minimum reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in overnight radiational cooling. Clear skies and light winds under a high-pressure ridge favor efficient longwave heat loss after a daytime high near 27°C, yet model runs differ on dew-point depression, residual boundary-layer moisture, and the precise timing of any weak southerly advection. Historical August lows average near 16°C, with occasional drops to 12–13°C when calm conditions enhance surface inversion strength; traders appear to weight recent ensemble guidance showing modest cooling potential against the risk of slightly higher readings if clouds or urban heat-island effects persist. Newer model updates or observed dew points tonight will likely sharpen the distribution before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Toronto on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 21?
14°C 31%
15°C 31%
12°C 28%
16°C 28%
BARU
BARU
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
26%
12°C
28%
13°C
28%
14°C
31%
15°C
31%
16°C
28%
17°C
26%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
14°C 31%
15°C 31%
12°C 28%
16°C 28%
BARU
BARU
Aug 21, 2026
9°C or below
$110 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$92 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$47 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$9 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
31%
15°C
$0 Vol.
31%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$19 Vol.
26%
18°C
$489 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$600 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–16°C for Toronto’s August 21 minimum reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in overnight radiational cooling. Clear skies and light winds under a high-pressure ridge favor efficient longwave heat loss after a daytime high near 27°C, yet model runs differ on dew-point depression, residual boundary-layer moisture, and the precise timing of any weak southerly advection. Historical August lows average near 16°C, with occasional drops to 12–13°C when calm conditions enhance surface inversion strength; traders appear to weight recent ensemble guidance showing modest cooling potential against the risk of slightly higher readings if clouds or urban heat-island effects persist. Newer model updates or observed dew points tonight will likely sharpen the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,365Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–16°C for Toronto’s August 21 minimum reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in overnight radiational cooling. Clear skies and light winds under a high-pressure ridge favor efficient longwave heat loss after a daytime high near 27°C, yet model runs differ on dew-point depression, residual boundary-layer moisture, and the precise timing of any weak southerly advection. Historical August lows average near 16°C, with occasional drops to 12–13°C when calm conditions enhance surface inversion strength; traders appear to weight recent ensemble guidance showing modest cooling potential against the risk of slightly higher readings if clouds or urban heat-island effects persist. Newer model updates or observed dew points tonight will likely sharpen the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,365Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 21, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight clustering of market-implied odds around 12–16°C for Toronto’s August 21 minimum reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in overnight radiational cooling. Clear skies and light winds under a high-pressure ridge favor efficient longwave heat loss after a daytime high near 27°C, yet model runs differ on dew-point depression, residual boundary-layer moisture, and the precise timing of any weak southerly advection. Historical August lows average near 16°C, with occasional drops to 12–13°C when calm conditions enhance surface inversion strength; traders appear to weight recent ensemble guidance showing modest cooling potential against the risk of slightly higher readings if clouds or urban heat-island effects persist. Newer model updates or observed dew points tonight will likely sharpen the distribution before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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