Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days has anchored trader expectations around September 12, the market’s slight leader at 46 percent. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as an incremental but meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, though still unconfirmed by official API endpoints, benchmarks, or release notes. Historical slippage in xAI timelines, combined with the need for verified production deployment rather than a founder estimate, keeps probabilities tightly clustered across mid-to-late September dates and leaves a 44 percent chance of no release by month-end. Traders are weighing rapid iteration against the practical hurdles of scaling and validation in a competitive field that includes OpenAI and Anthropic updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSeptember 17 46%
On or prior to September 9 44%
September 10 44%
September 11 44%
BARU
BARU
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
44%
September 10
44%
September 11
44%
September 12
28%
September 13
38%
September 14
44%
September 15
28%
September 16
28%
September 17
46%
September 18
28%
September 19
41%
September 20
44%
September 21
44%
September 22
44%
September 23
44%
September 24
44%
September 25
26%
September 26
44%
September 27
42%
September 28
44%
September 29
43%
September 30
44%
No release by September 30
44%
September 17 46%
On or prior to September 9 44%
September 10 44%
September 11 44%
BARU
BARU
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$0 Vol.
44%
September 10
$0 Vol.
44%
September 11
$0 Vol.
44%
September 12
$0 Vol.
28%
September 13
$0 Vol.
38%
September 14
$0 Vol.
44%
September 15
$0 Vol.
28%
September 16
$0 Vol.
28%
September 17
$0 Vol.
46%
September 18
$0 Vol.
28%
September 19
$0 Vol.
41%
September 20
$0 Vol.
44%
September 21
$0 Vol.
44%
September 22
$0 Vol.
44%
September 23
$0 Vol.
44%
September 24
$0 Vol.
44%
September 25
$0 Vol.
26%
September 26
$0 Vol.
44%
September 27
$0 Vol.
42%
September 28
$0 Vol.
44%
September 29
$0 Vol.
43%
September 30
$0 Vol.
44%
No release by September 30
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days has anchored trader expectations around September 12, the market’s slight leader at 46 percent. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as an incremental but meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, though still unconfirmed by official API endpoints, benchmarks, or release notes. Historical slippage in xAI timelines, combined with the need for verified production deployment rather than a founder estimate, keeps probabilities tightly clustered across mid-to-late September dates and leaves a 44 percent chance of no release by month-end. Traders are weighing rapid iteration against the practical hurdles of scaling and validation in a competitive field that includes OpenAI and Anthropic updates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days has anchored trader expectations around September 12, the market’s slight leader at 46 percent. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as an incremental but meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, though still unconfirmed by official API endpoints, benchmarks, or release notes. Historical slippage in xAI timelines, combined with the need for verified production deployment rather than a founder estimate, keeps probabilities tightly clustered across mid-to-late September dates and leaves a 44 percent chance of no release by month-end. Traders are weighing rapid iteration against the practical hurdles of scaling and validation in a competitive field that includes OpenAI and Anthropic updates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days has anchored trader expectations around September 12, the market’s slight leader at 46 percent. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX data after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12, is positioned as an incremental but meaningful step up in capability and token efficiency, though still unconfirmed by official API endpoints, benchmarks, or release notes. Historical slippage in xAI timelines, combined with the need for verified production deployment rather than a founder estimate, keeps probabilities tightly clustered across mid-to-late September dates and leaves a 44 percent chance of no release by month-end. Traders are weighing rapid iteration against the practical hurdles of scaling and validation in a competitive field that includes OpenAI and Anthropic updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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