Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive victory in the March 3, 2026, GOP primary for Texas's 31st Congressional District, securing 60% of the vote and avoiding a runoff amid a crowded 10-candidate field, has solidified trader consensus around a Republican hold at 85%. The district, spanning Central Texas suburbs north of Austin to Temple and rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, favors GOP candidates with strong incumbency advantages and historical base rates exceeding 55% in recent cycles. Democrat Justin Early emerged from the primary, but fragmented opposition and limited fundraising underscore the uphill path. With the general election set for November 3, no polling shifts or scandals have emerged in the past month to challenge this positioning, though national midterm dynamics could influence turnout in battleground areas.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTX-31 House Election Winner
TX-31 House Election Winner
$13,946 Vol.
$13,946 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
85%
Democratic Party
15%
$13,946 Vol.
$13,946 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$8,720 Vol.
85%
Democratic Party
$5,226 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive victory in the March 3, 2026, GOP primary for Texas's 31st Congressional District, securing 60% of the vote and avoiding a runoff amid a crowded 10-candidate field, has solidified trader consensus around a Republican hold at 85%. The district, spanning Central Texas suburbs north of Austin to Temple and rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, favors GOP candidates with strong incumbency advantages and historical base rates exceeding 55% in recent cycles. Democrat Justin Early emerged from the primary, but fragmented opposition and limited fundraising underscore the uphill path. With the general election set for November 3, no polling shifts or scandals have emerged in the past month to challenge this positioning, though national midterm dynamics could influence turnout in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$13,946Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive victory in the March 3, 2026, GOP primary for Texas's 31st Congressional District, securing 60% of the vote and avoiding a runoff amid a crowded 10-candidate field, has solidified trader consensus around a Republican hold at 85%. The district, spanning Central Texas suburbs north of Austin to Temple and rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, favors GOP candidates with strong incumbency advantages and historical base rates exceeding 55% in recent cycles. Democrat Justin Early emerged from the primary, but fragmented opposition and limited fundraising underscore the uphill path. With the general election set for November 3, no polling shifts or scandals have emerged in the past month to challenge this positioning, though national midterm dynamics could influence turnout in battleground areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,946Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Carter's decisive victory in the March 3, 2026, GOP primary for Texas's 31st Congressional District, securing 60% of the vote and avoiding a runoff amid a crowded 10-candidate field, has solidified trader consensus around a Republican hold at 85%. The district, spanning Central Texas suburbs north of Austin to Temple and rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report, favors GOP candidates with strong incumbency advantages and historical base rates exceeding 55% in recent cycles. Democrat Justin Early emerged from the primary, but fragmented opposition and limited fundraising underscore the uphill path. With the general election set for November 3, no polling shifts or scandals have emerged in the past month to challenge this positioning, though national midterm dynamics could influence turnout in battleground areas.
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