Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new flagship iPhone model each September drives the 97.3% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. This pattern has held without interruption since the original iPhone, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines, semiconductor production cycles, and annual hardware refreshes that include incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays. Trader consensus reflects this consistency, with few historical precedents for skipping a year. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory blocks on key components, or an unforeseen corporate pivot could theoretically delay the launch, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple's diversified manufacturing and advance planning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$163,533 Vol.
$163,533 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$163,533 Vol.
$163,533 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new flagship iPhone model each September drives the 97.3% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. This pattern has held without interruption since the original iPhone, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines, semiconductor production cycles, and annual hardware refreshes that include incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays. Trader consensus reflects this consistency, with few historical precedents for skipping a year. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory blocks on key components, or an unforeseen corporate pivot could theoretically delay the launch, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple's diversified manufacturing and advance planning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$163,533Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new flagship iPhone model each September drives the 97.3% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. This pattern has held without interruption since the original iPhone, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines, semiconductor production cycles, and annual hardware refreshes that include incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays. Trader consensus reflects this consistency, with few historical precedents for skipping a year. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory blocks on key components, or an unforeseen corporate pivot could theoretically delay the launch, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple's diversified manufacturing and advance planning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$163,533Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new flagship iPhone model each September drives the 97.3% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. This pattern has held without interruption since the original iPhone, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines, semiconductor production cycles, and annual hardware refreshes that include incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays. Trader consensus reflects this consistency, with few historical precedents for skipping a year. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory blocks on key components, or an unforeseen corporate pivot could theoretically delay the launch, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple's diversified manufacturing and advance planning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan