Michigan voters face an automatic constitutional convention question on the November 3, 2026 ballot under the state constitution's 16-year cycle, asking whether to elect delegates for a potential full rewrite of the 1963 document. Trader consensus heavily favors rejection at 96.1% implied probability for "no," reflecting Michigan's consistent pattern of defeating the measure in 1978, 1994, and 2010 by wide margins. A bipartisan coalition of political leaders and interest groups has mobilized against it, citing risks of instability and special-interest influence in any convention process. Recent polling shows divided opinion with notable undecided voters, yet the market prices in limited upside for passage given structural barriers and historical precedent. Late developments such as shifts in turnout or unexpected endorsements could still influence the outcome before election day.